Yup
@drakenridder . When the Winter Event 2022 first came to beta awareness, I did my quick math, and waited to hear what
@MooingCat had to say (I value his opinion and technical methodologies
highly - as do many community members...), and then admitted to myself that I could have a green light to go down the personal runway
toward a 2 unit, event prize goal.
When Vic "blew the doors open" and executed his "they're ON SALE - buy the ranch" plan robustly, the product manager in me said - WOW - that's gonna rock someone in Inno's home office for a meeting on that strategy (but I said it here diplomatically).
Maybe it did just that. It would if I was on the team @ the company. Someone (
@Vic Vicious Beta ) showed a gameplan that wasn't ever considered viable - and exposed an opportunity outside the bounds of game "normalcy". Kudos to Vic = I like the way he thinks.
SO... I'm not connecting Inno's event changes to what Vic did - but it "feels" like what Vic did and his "thinking outside of the box" (aside from being "darned impressive"), might be consider something of an exploit- a hole the event design opened for extreme opportunism.
Inno's saying now: Nope - we don't want that opportunism to go to the live game. I can see that position too.
Once you spend your 800-1000 US dollars on a city with mostly WINTER EVENT 2022 buildings and their children (Nutcraker guardhouses) in a design that allows them to keep making MORE children, the probability this customer will spend anything more literally could go to 0.
Never allow a customer to close the door on future revenue.
If Inno left it easy to do that, some would do in the live game what Vic did.
I think they wanted to remove that possibility by remathing the event for "normalcy" and remove extremism - ie, potential opportunism on an exploit.
SO - saying with a grin: Vic? Next time you think up a brilliant idea,....? use the zipper on it
That's fair enough, though digging deep into the guardhouses and factories:
Age: OF (lowest age with highest stats)
Size: 2x2
Att%: 5% (1,25%/ square)
Def%: 7% (1,75% / square)
Combined: 12% (3% buff / square)
Desired buff from guardhouses: 5.000%/7.000%
Desired amount guardhouses: 1.000
Required fragments: 1.000 x 200/guardhouses = 200.000 fragments
Factories: 50
Assumed average annual collections: 300
Average annual fragments: 300 collections x 50 factories x 3 fragments/factory = 45.000 fragments
200.000 fragments / 45.000 annual fragments = 4,44> yrs
0,44yrs x 300 annual collections = 133,33> collections
134 / 25 collections (average monthly collections) = 5,36 months
0,36 months x 25 collections = 9 days
To summarise it'll take a whopping
50 factories: 4 years, 5 months and 9 days to obtain 1.000 guardhouses.
With a bg with a 70% chance however, it'll change:
14 supported factories x 300 annual collections x 3 daily fragments = 12.600 fragments.
12.600 fragments x 1,7 (70% of the time they got an additional 3 fragments for any of those 14 factories) = 21.420 average annual fragments
50 factories - 14 supported factories = 36 unsupported factories x 300 annual collections x 3 daily fragments = 32.400 annual fragments.
32.400 annual fragments from unsupported factories + 21.420 fragments from bg supported factories =
53.820 average annual fragments
200.000 required fragments / 53.820 average annual fragments =
3,716> years
0,716> x 300 annual collections = 214,83 collections or ~ 215 collections / 25 collections (average monthly collections) = 8,6 months
0,6 months x 25 average monthly collections = 15 days
3 years, 8 months and 15 days with 50 factories and bg lvl89.
To summarise with 50 factories, 70% bg and 14 supported factories, it'll take on average 3 years, 8 months and 15 days to get 1.000 guardhouses produced.
Assuming this hypothetical whale didn't get any guardhouses from the event, which is improbable and wants 1.000 guardhouses with their 50 factories. Also they made room for 1.000 guardhouses and 50 factories. Also the factories are always motivated. If the do use an bg of lvl 89, it'll take almost 4 years with 50 factories and without +/- 4,5 years. Idk how that's such an problem as Inno likely introducing better event buildings within that time frame and I've picked a very extreme scenario using 50 factories, not even just 2-3 that most might've bought if the change didn't happen. Tbh I don't see this happening very quickly. Not even without the change.