@Iggy the Troll a rough estimation is 2x as much as before, since the double selection kits has been replaced by a single selection kit. So, anywhere between 15k and 30k diamonds or €60-120 when for "sale" with the 200% diamonds special offer.
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Feedback Winter Event 2022
- Thread starter Juber
- Start date
Shouldn't be that high.
You need to hit 580 if doing the calendar (which is reasonable If buying stars), or 620 if not doing the calendar assuming the top line is x1s again.
You seem to reach ~320 conservatively for free depending on incident RNG, board RNG, lighting RNG, etc. So you need to buy an extra 260-300 progress. = 130-150 extra matches = ~1000 raw stars accounting for getting some back) = ~11k diamonds + 1200 diamonds for the pass = ~12k diamonds. Further ones will be similar (maybe an extra package of stars because you don't have the over-run from free currency ; but don't have to buy the pass again).
Should.
In the original it had cost 15 x 1.050 diamonds, to the best of my mathematical knowledge that is 15.750 diamonds, correct me if I'm wrong if 15x1.050 is less.
Also the event pass costs €18 and no options to spending diamonds. At least if this winter event pass is the same as Halloween. Which drives up the price with at least €18. The calendar has been proven unreliable but could either saving some diamonds/money but could also drastically increasing it.
Translating it to €'s, with 200% special offer you can buy 15.000 diamonds for the cheap price of €60. Those 15k diamonds from the 15x1.050diamonds for stars, were the baseline. The event pass costs €18, no diamonds, which means: €60 + €18 = €78. Even if you've managed to gather 15.750 diamonds for free and assuming it's still 15x1.050 diamonds, even though it has changed and probably not, it'll cost at least €18 for the event pass.
As the kits have shrinks by 2, it's reasonable imho to assume the costs to also increase by 2. Resulting in 15.750 -> 31.500 diamonds or €60-€120 + €18 for the event pass.
15x1050 is only assuming 1x in the top line *and* is assuming you get no stars back from the things you open (which you'll get a lot back). It is overly pessimistic. When they updated to 2x in the top line it should've gotten about 25-30% cheaper still (i.e. under 10k per)
Event pass is in A/B test - it was still diamonds for me.
The kits haven't shrunken by two. they've shrunk by ~25% - you got 4 kits from 4 grandprizes (2x1 in the bottom line and 1x2 in the top line every 4 grand prizes) - now you get 3 (2x1 in the bottom line and 1x1 in the top line).
So no, it's nowhere close to 30k diamonds. or even 15k diamonds.
Based on my simulator the star "multiplier" if you spend all stars the same day is 1.37, so for every 100 stars you start with you get to spend 137 stars. If you go for keys every day for the calendar, it's around 1.22 (because you don't get 10 stars back from keys, and you hit fewer shuffles, which also gives 10 stars).
If I'm not mistaken, though, you only need 580 progress without the calendar, 520 with the calendar. Kits from GP line at 340, 380, 420, 460, 500, 540 and 580, 2x kits from pass line at 440 and 520, for 11 total without calendar. With calendar you don't need regular grand prize 540 and 580, but you do need event pass prize at 520 for the full 11. I can't find any mention of the event pass kits being halved, and you still get 2 in-game, have I missed something?
Using my simulator I looked at a some different starting number of stars for what's required to reach 580/520 with the different strategies. Starting with the average numbers, you need 290/260 matches, which is 2900/2600 stars spent, which if we divide by the multipliers from above equals 2117/2131 starting stars. Interestingly, it seems like you actually need slightly fewer starting stars if you go for daily specials ... Anyways, using those numbers, I get a 57.5%/54.5% chance of reaching 580/520 progress. That few extra points seem to come from a slightly low multiplier estimate, seems like that grows a bit (1.378/1.224) with more stars. In any event, the average missing progress when not reaching the target is around 15, so let's bump up the starting stars to 2200 and 2300 and try again. With those numbers, the chance goes up to 90.9%/83.6% for 2200 and 99.7%/98.8% for 2300, so I think we can use 2200 as a decent estimate for what's required. You can see the result graphs below:
Another thing to note is that you're not guaranteed to get enough keys if you try to go for the calendar. You have a high chance, and you do need to get pretty much all daily challenge fragments, but it's not guaranteed. As you can see from the graphs you will also get fewer daily specials ... and they are spread out over a lot of different days. Considering you don't even save any diamonds going for the calendar, in fact it might even be slightly more expensive, I don't see any reason to do it over spending all on 1 day.
So, how much will it cost to get a 2nd building? 2200 stars means you need an additional 1105 stars, though you will get some of these from incidents. At most it will cost 11550 + 1200 (event pass) = 12750 diamonds, but I think you can easily save a few thousand from incidents or some better luck, for an estimated cost of around 10-11k diamonds if you ask me.
Beyond this you get on average 1 kit per grand prize (0+1+2+1 per 4 grand prizes), so you need 11*20=220 progress on average per additional building. That's 1100 stars, divided by 1.38 equals just under 800 starting stars per additional building, or 8400 diamonds per additional building.
If I'm not mistaken, though, you only need 580 progress without the calendar, 520 with the calendar. Kits from GP line at 340, 380, 420, 460, 500, 540 and 580, 2x kits from pass line at 440 and 520, for 11 total without calendar. With calendar you don't need regular grand prize 540 and 580, but you do need event pass prize at 520 for the full 11. I can't find any mention of the event pass kits being halved, and you still get 2 in-game, have I missed something?
Using my simulator I looked at a some different starting number of stars for what's required to reach 580/520 with the different strategies. Starting with the average numbers, you need 290/260 matches, which is 2900/2600 stars spent, which if we divide by the multipliers from above equals 2117/2131 starting stars. Interestingly, it seems like you actually need slightly fewer starting stars if you go for daily specials ... Anyways, using those numbers, I get a 57.5%/54.5% chance of reaching 580/520 progress. That few extra points seem to come from a slightly low multiplier estimate, seems like that grows a bit (1.378/1.224) with more stars. In any event, the average missing progress when not reaching the target is around 15, so let's bump up the starting stars to 2200 and 2300 and try again. With those numbers, the chance goes up to 90.9%/83.6% for 2200 and 99.7%/98.8% for 2300, so I think we can use 2200 as a decent estimate for what's required. You can see the result graphs below:
| Daily Special Focus | Key Focus |
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| Daily Special Focus | Key Focus |
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| Daily Special Focus | Key Focus |
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Another thing to note is that you're not guaranteed to get enough keys if you try to go for the calendar. You have a high chance, and you do need to get pretty much all daily challenge fragments, but it's not guaranteed. As you can see from the graphs you will also get fewer daily specials ... and they are spread out over a lot of different days. Considering you don't even save any diamonds going for the calendar, in fact it might even be slightly more expensive, I don't see any reason to do it over spending all on 1 day.
So, how much will it cost to get a 2nd building? 2200 stars means you need an additional 1105 stars, though you will get some of these from incidents. At most it will cost 11550 + 1200 (event pass) = 12750 diamonds, but I think you can easily save a few thousand from incidents or some better luck, for an estimated cost of around 10-11k diamonds if you ask me.
Beyond this you get on average 1 kit per grand prize (0+1+2+1 per 4 grand prizes), so you need 11*20=220 progress on average per additional building. That's 1100 stars, divided by 1.38 equals just under 800 starting stars per additional building, or 8400 diamonds per additional building.
Code:
import random
import math
import numpy as np
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
# Number of stars you start off with
startingStars = 2300
# If True, simulate stopping after finding each daily key. If False, spend all the same day.
goForKeys = True
# Required Progress (for your goal, 300 for 1 full building)
requiredProgress = 520
# Number of keys required for calendar (you can get ~11 for free from daily challenges)
numKeys = 21
# Number of Simulations
simNum = 10000
# Show plots
showPlots = True
# Don't change anything below here (unless you know what you're doing)
######################################################################
fragments = 5
def getRandomList():
# 4 - shuffle, 5 - key, 15 - daily, 20 - double
l = [3,14,4,5,15,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
random.shuffle(l)
return l
def pickPresent(days,l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k):
i = 0
t = False
if(len(l2) > 0):
if sum(l2) > 0:
if (dsFound and (not goForKeys or (days > 32))) and 4 in l2:
i = l2.index(4)
t = True
elif 4 in l2:
if sum(l2) == 4:
try:
i = random.choice(range(len(l)))
except:
print(days,l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k)
exit()
else:
i = l2.index(sum(l2)-4)
t = True
else:
i = l2.index(max(l2))
t = True
else:
i = random.choice(range(len(l)))
else:
i = random.choice(range(len(l)))
if t:
res = l2[i]
del l2[i]
del i2[i]
else:
res = l[i]
del l[i]
if res == 0:
# nothing
#print(0)
d = 1
elif res == 3:
i2 = random.sample(range(len(l)),min(2,len(l)))
l2 = [l[i2[x]] for x in range(len(i2))]
del l[max(i2)]
if len(i2) > 1:
del l[min(i2)]
s += 3*d
#print(3*d,"stars + show 2:",l2)
elif res == 4:
l2 = []
i2 = []
l = getRandomList()
dsFound = False
s += 10*d
#print(10*d,"stars + shuffle:",l)
return days, l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k
elif res == 5:
k += 1 if goForKeys else 1/fragments
if d == 2:
k += 1/fragments
s += 10
if goForKeys and (days <= 32):
days += 1
l2 = []
i2 = []
l = getRandomList()
dsFound = False
else:
s += 10
#print(d,"key(s) +",d*10,"stars")
elif res == 14:
s += 14*d
#print(d*14,"stars")
elif res == 15:
ds += 1*d
dsFound = True
#print(d,"Daily Special(s)")
elif res == 20:
d = 2
#print("Double")
if res == 20:
d = 2
else:
d = 1
return days, l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k
keys = []
dailies = []
candles = []
gpProgress = []
for x in range(simNum):
if x % round(simNum/10) == 0:
print(round((x/simNum)*100),"%")
starting = startingStars
s = starting
ds = 0
k = 0 if goForKeys else 1
l = getRandomList()
l2 = []
i2 = []
dsFound = False
d = 1
c = 0
days = 0
while s >= 10:
s -= 10
c += 1
days,l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k = pickPresent(days,l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k)
dailies.append(ds)
keys.append(math.floor(k))
candles.append(c)
gp = 0
for i in range(c):
gp += random.choice([1,2,3])
gpProgress.append(gp)
if showPlots:
labels = ["Keys","Dailies","Grand Prize Progress"]
results = [keys,dailies,gpProgress]
fig, ax = plt.subplots(3,1,figsize=(10,16))
#fig, ax = plt.subplots(3,1,figsize=(10,15))
for i in range(3):
label = labels[i]
rmin = min(results[i])
rmax = max(results[i])
ax[i].hist(results[i],edgecolor='white', label=label, bins=range(rmin,rmax,1))
#ax.set_title(label)
if i == 0:
ax[i].axvline(x = numKeys, color = "r", label = str(numKeys) + " Required for Calendar")
if i == 2:
ax[i].axvline(x = requiredProgress, color = "r", label = "Required for Target")
ax[i].legend()
#bin_centers = np.diff(bins)*0.5 + bins[:-1]
#n = 0
#for fr, x, patch in zip(freq, bin_centers, patches):
# height = (freq[n]/len(results))
# plt.annotate("{}".format(height),
# xy = (x, height*len(results)), # top left corner of the histogram bar
# xytext = (0,0.2), # offsetting label position above its bar
# textcoords = "offset points", # Offset (in points) from the *xy* value
# ha = 'center', va = 'bottom'
# )
# n = n+1
#plt.legend()
c = np.average(candles)
gppU = [k for k in gpProgress if k < requiredProgress]
gppO = [k for k in gpProgress if k >= requiredProgress]
if len(gppU) == 0:
gppU.append(0)
if len(gppO) == 0:
gppO.append(0)
gpU = round(100*(len(gppU)/len(gpProgress)),2)
gpO = round(100*(len(gppO)/len(gpProgress)),2)
try:
maxM = requiredProgress - min(gpProgress)
except Exception:
maxM = 999
try:
avgM = round(requiredProgress - np.average(gppU),2)
except Exception:
avgM = 999
try:
meanM = int(requiredProgress-np.median(gppU))
except Exception:
meanM = 999
mode = "(Daily Special Focus)" if not goForKeys else "(Keys Focus)"
fig.suptitle("Expected Grand Prize Progress w/ " + str(startingStars) + " Starting Stars " + mode + "\nActual stars spent (average): " + str(round(c*10,2)) +
" | Chance of Reaching Target: " + str(gpO) + "%\nMissing Progress (when target not reached): Max: " + str(maxM) + " | Average: " + str(avgM) + " | Median: " + str(meanM))
plt.show()
# For last game
printStats = True
if printStats:
c = np.average(candles)
ds = np.average(dailies)
k = np.average(keys)
gp = np.average(gpProgress)
kU = [k for k in keys if k < numKeys]
kO = [k for k in keys if k >= numKeys]
cU = round(100*(len(kU)/len(keys)),2)
cO = round(100*(len(kO)/len(keys)),2)
gppU = [k for k in gpProgress if k < requiredProgress]
gppO = [k for k in gpProgress if k >= requiredProgress]
if len(gppU) == 0:
gppU.append(0)
if len(gppO) == 0:
gppO.append(0)
gpU = round(100*(len(gppU)/len(gpProgress)),2)
gpO = round(100*(len(gppO)/len(gpProgress)),2)
try:
maxM = requiredProgress - min(gpProgress)
except Exception:
maxM = 999
try:
avgM = round(requiredProgress - np.average(gppU),2)
except Exception:
avgM = 999
try:
meanM = int(requiredProgress-np.median(gppU))
except Exception:
meanM = 999
print("---------")
if goForKeys:
print("Average Totals (going for Keys):")
else:
print("Average Totals (going for Dailies):")
print("Starting stars:",startingStars)
print("Stars spent:",round(c*10,2),"(x" + str(round(c*10/startingStars,3)) + ")")
#print("Stars Multiplication Factor: x" + str(round(c*10/startingStars,3)),"( 10 ->",str(round(c*100/startingStars,2)) + ")")
print()
print("Matches:",round(c,2))
print("Stars* per Match:",round(startingStars/c,2))
print()
print("Daily Specials:",round(ds,2))
print("Stars* per Daily Special:",round(startingStars/ds,2))
print()
print("Grand Prize Progress:",round(gp,2))
print("Stars* per Grand Prize Progress:",round(startingStars/gp,2))
print("Change of getting Full Building:",str(gpO) + "%")
print("When missing progress:")
print("Maximum Missing Progress:",str(maxM))
print("Average Missing Progress:",str(avgM))
print()
print("Keys:",round(k,2))
print("Stars* per Key:",round(startingStars/k,2))
print("Chance of getting",numKeys,"keys:",str(cO) + "%")
print()
print("")
print()
print("*Starting Stars")
No, there was no change to the Winter Prizes, only the Grand Prizes.
Last edited:
ok, i thought you meant those because I only saw the 2xs up top
Thought both lines counted as "grand" prizes.
That is because the change was already applied to the Grand Prizes before you looked. ^^ok, i thought you meant those because I only saw the 2xs up top
The bottom line is the Grand Prizes, the top line the Winter Prizes
The 15x 1.050 is not an assumption. It was provided by a beta player through a private conversation. They revealed that they had to spend 15x 1.050 diamonds to getting their 2nd factory. This was still with the old system. Theory and real testing don't always match. Especially with Inno, for example my bg with a 30%+ chance had in 14d in a row not a single time given the 2x boost. In theory this shouldn't be the case, yet it happens.
I'm glad for you, that you're not one of the victimless places on Inno's target list (yet). Though I'm convinced that their greed will make them forcing all players in 2024 to offer the event passes for €18. As even <1% of the victims paying the ransom would already be an "succes" in increasing revenue for them and thus more the probably the test will conclude with all players having to pay money.
In that case the damage might be more limited. Though in the announcement it was stated that it was from 2x selection kits to 1. Which suggested a reduction of 50% and thus 2x requirement of stars. Either way I'm happy that Inno has woke me up with their discouragement program for buying diamonds for cash. I won't be surprised to see next year them "testing" with A/B testing event currency for money. Dear Lord I hope they'll be able to read my sarcasm for what it is: sarcasm and not as a viable idea to maximise revenue. Even though it might make events slightly more appealing with real money (cheaper).
Big John hard stone
Merchant
Hello, yes We can make a thought
Jules
Squire
First the daily special only consisted of various combinations of fragments, now it only gives me all the various train cars. I still have nearly all my stars, what will I spend them on the last day? Maybe I will get some self aid kits? I wonder what Inno has in storage for me...
Now I do still want to get that main building...
Now I do still want to get that main building...
Vercingetorix
Merchant
I have all my stars too.
Let´s wait for a good last day special...
Let´s wait for a good last day special...
The timer says 2 days until the end of the event, but today was the last quest and the last day of the calendar, so what are we supposed to do tomorrow? Just log in?
Kronan
Viceroy
Yes, wondering that also. Just got my last ungrade now @ midnight my local time last nite, so... is it off due to the time change that occurred last week (daylight savings time changes?)
I find that very hard to believe, at least if they meant getting the 2nd building at the end of the event, and not part way through the event before all free upgrades / stars had been distributed.
If they bought 1500 stars from diamonds, that's 2595 starting stars, however as we've talked about you get a lot back from the minigame. With the estimates from my simulator that would be 3166/3555 stars spent if you go for calendar vs daily specials, which would be around 316/355 matches.
A side note for the simulator. The mechanics are known and deterministic, which makes a simulator essentially the same as the actual game. Specifically for the amount of stars spent / matches received, this event is probably the easiest to simulate. Additionally, the user choices have very little impact on what you receive, so there's practically no difference between good vs bad play. The only difference is going for calendar vs daily special, but it's easy enough to treat these separately. Chance is of course still involved when it comes to picking the "good" presents, but particularly in terms of number of stars / matches you get, luck doesn't play that big of a part.
In any event, to have some fun with it, let's use the absolute lowest results after 100k simulations each in my simulator, which were 289/329 matches vs average 316/355.
Going for keys:
Going for daily specials:
Going for daily specials:
With the old system 500 progress was required for a 2nd building without the calendar, 460 with the calendar. Using the lowest numbers of matches from above, we can create a new distribution on how far you're expected to get on grand prizes. Mathematicians are free to do this mathematically, but I'm a programmer so I simply simulated picking between 1, 2 and 3 for the minimum number of matches, and did so 100k times each again.
Going for keys:
Going for daily specials:
Going for daily specials:
So even with the worst luck on both the number of stars you get back (i.e. number of matches), and the "roll of the dice" when using the matches, 15k diamonds is way more than what was required
I'll share the conversation, I'm pretty sure the player who has provided the informationI find that very hard to believe, at least if they meant getting the 2nd building at the end of the event, and not part way through the event before all free upgrades / stars had been distributed.
If they bought 1500 stars from diamonds, that's 2595 starting stars, however as we've talked about you get a lot back from the minigame. With the estimates from my simulator that would be 3166/3555 stars spent if you go for calendar vs daily specials, which would be around 316/355 matches.
A side note for the simulator. The mechanics are known and deterministic, which makes a simulator essentially the same as the actual game. Specifically for the amount of stars spent / matches received, this event is probably the easiest to simulate. Additionally, the user choices have very little impact on what you receive, so there's practically no difference between good vs bad play. The only difference is going for calendar vs daily special, but it's easy enough to treat these separately. Chance is of course still involved when it comes to picking the "good" presents, but particularly in terms of number of stars / matches you get, luck doesn't play that big of a part.
In any event, to have some fun with it, let's use the absolute lowest results after 100k simulations each in my simulator, which were 289/329 matches vs average 316/355.
With the old system 500 progress was required for a 2nd building without the calendar, 460 with the calendar. Using the lowest numbers of matches from above, we can create a new distribution on how far you're expected to get on grand prizes. Mathematicians are free to do this mathematically, but I'm a programmer so I simply simulated picking between 1, 2 and 3 for the minimum number of matches, and did so 100k times each again.
So even with the worst luck on both the number of stars you get back (i.e. number of matches), and the "roll of the dice" when using the matches, 15k diamonds is way more than what wasrequired
