TudorRknRlla
Merchant
Yep, the FoE Helper doesn't include the Aegean Couples Resort. I got 40 FP more than FoE Helper said I would. So I am happy 
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Feedback Soccer Cup 2023
- Thread starter Juber
- Start date
Arch1e
Marquis
Same. Likewise with the Trailside Smithy from previous event, it’s supposed to give 10% Sunhaven frags, but I’ve had a total of 60 of those, while building 2 new Summerholds.
Dursland
Merchant
I'm having the same experience with that as well.
12 summerhold kits assembled and have only hit sunhaven fragments twice for a total of 60.
That puts it at 1,800 fragments to 60.
Which comes out to around 3.3% for sunhaven fragments.
Arch1e
Marquis
Your sample size is too small, so I was told. Pretty obvious difference in what it should be to what it is. There are similar discrepancies in lots of features, but no amount of examples or data seem to be enough to convince the powers that be to look at it.
well if 1800 to 60 was raw samples (it's not, because of his BG), that's 90 vs 3 overall. 3 successes are not enough to comment on whether or not something is really at a given rate. 3 or less successes out of 93 at 10% probability is 1.3%. It's rare, but not impossible. And since blue galaxy is responsible for many of those collections, it'd be higher still as it's probably more like 1000:40 fragments at baseline or 50 to 2 spawns which would be ~11% likelihood to get that *or worse*.
The sample size needs to be large enough to generate a good number of (expected) successes before you can contest that you're so short that it's rigged.
If you had a collective sample of everyone at this point it'd be enough but as is you have a selection-biased sample of people who want to report on not getting what they want for the most part.
Incidentally, my luck has run the other way on trail. I'm at 840 regular : 180 golden. I have my golden waiting but not enough base pieces yet - and i had 2 extra base pieces from the event! Adjusting for ~20% BG chance (my BG is new on that world), 35:7ish on the samples, I'm in the top 15% of "expected" golden fragments. Fortunately for me, my version of bad luck is but a speed bump, while the people still waiting on enough golden fragments might want to say a prayer to RNGod
This is just the way randomness works - streaks happen in the short run - and the short run is a lot longer than we instinctively expect it to be.
CrashBoom
Legend
I got (in my live world)
1860 sommerhold manor fragments
220 golden fragments
(always used a 70% BG chance to double)
that makes 89.4% normal kit and 10.6% golden
(exact production values of the building can be a little be different because it also depends on the blue galaxy and which of those they increased more often)
but the more important question to me:
why the one building (Trailside Smithey) produces normal kits and golden upgrades seperate
where the other building (flowering bungainvillea tree) is producing only one selection kit which includes the golden kit
1860 sommerhold manor fragments
220 golden fragments
(always used a 70% BG chance to double)
that makes 89.4% normal kit and 10.6% golden
(exact production values of the building can be a little be different because it also depends on the blue galaxy and which of those they increased more often)
but the more important question to me:
why the one building (Trailside Smithey) produces normal kits and golden upgrades seperate
where the other building (flowering bungainvillea tree) is producing only one selection kit which includes the golden kit
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Estipar
Merchant
I got almost identical results using this method . about 11% GoldenI got (in my live world)
1860 sommerhold manor fragments
220 golden fragments
(always used a 70% BG chance to double)
that makes 89.4% normal kit and 10.6% golden
(exact production values of the building can be a little be different because it also depends on the blue galaxy and which of those they increased more often)
but the more important question to me:
why the one building (Trailside Smithey) produces normal kits and golden upgrades seperate
where the other building (flowering bungainvillea tree) is producing only one selection kit which includes the golden kit
Dursland
Merchant
That's a good question about the FBT. One would think Inno 'learned' from the 10% rate on smithy and decided not to repeat that.I got (in my live world)
1860 sommerhold manor fragments
220 golden fragments
(always used a 70% BG chance to double)
that makes 89.4% normal kit and 10.6% golden
(exact production values of the building can be a little be different because it also depends on the blue galaxy and which of those they increased more often)
but the more important question to me:
why the one building (Trailside Smithey) produces normal kits and golden upgrades seperate
where the other building (flowering bungainvillea tree) is producing only one selection kit which includes the golden kit
But then they went and did it again with the Vineyard and Grape Stomping festival in Fall Event.
So who knows what their reasoning is for the Aegean Golden kits.
Interesting stuff about the sample sizes. Thanks. Guess I will come back on Dilmun's 2 year anniversary (next Sept) and we'll see how many Sunhaven Palaces I have vs lv9 Summerholds.
Sorry we went off-topic a bit.
CDmark
Baronet
took 4 to 5 events to get it right, I have had the same question. Then, since they got it right, decided to make the Fall Event that needs a flow chart to know what you are doing and back to split up fragments, sowhere the other building (flowering bungainvillea tree) is producing only one selection kit which includes the golden kit
lol..go figureThe grape stomping festival is not the same situation as the smithy - as if you wind up short silver/golden pieces, your newly built vineyard will just make them itself.
It's actually better for longterm growth if your grape stompers *don't* produce "enough" silver/golden pieces - because that'll mean you get extra base buildings, and the base buildings make the rest of their own upgrades efficiently.
The "problem" result for the festival is getting too many silver/gold upgrades and having wasted days accordingly - but the loss from that is less volatile than with the smithy (it's unlikely to be *that* many days to get your missing base pieces at 82-90% chance).
While there's little question from a player perspective the bougainvillea's pick-your-own-piece is preferred, from a game balance perspective they might view the bougainvillea as the mistake of the lot. Or they might want to fluctuate the system so people who have a clear preference for the safe RNG-free one are more prone to jump when it shows up again.took 4 to 5 events to get it right, I have had the same question. Then, since they got it right, decided to make the Fall Event that needs a flow chart to know what you are doing and back to split up fragments, so
Dursland
Merchant
Looks like Aegeans are okay on the 50% - it was just hard to tell with only one and a small sample size.
It does give out blueprints a little more often than I'd like but I'd wager I will get some more 3x fp collections to balance it out. Results so far:
09/10 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
09/11 - 1 blueprints, 2 fp
09/12 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
09/13 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
09/14 - 1 blueprints, 2 fp
09/15 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
09/16 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
09/17 - 1 blueprints, 2 fp
09/18 - 1 blueprints, 2 fp
09/19 - 0 blueprints, 3 fp
09/20 - power outage, missed collection
09/21 - 1 blueprints, 2 fp
09/22 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
It does give out blueprints a little more often than I'd like but I'd wager I will get some more 3x fp collections to balance it out. Results so far:
09/10 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
09/11 - 1 blueprints, 2 fp
09/12 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
09/13 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
09/14 - 1 blueprints, 2 fp
09/15 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
09/16 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp
09/17 - 1 blueprints, 2 fp
09/18 - 1 blueprints, 2 fp
09/19 - 0 blueprints, 3 fp
09/20 - power outage, missed collection
09/21 - 1 blueprints, 2 fp
09/22 - 2 blueprints, 1 fp