an inhabitant of carcosa
Marquis
I like the system. You can now claim the prizes when you want (and perhaps use for quests, like recruit troops).
Yes. No reward will be lost.
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Feedback Forge Bowl 2022
- Thread starter Juber
- Start date
Nice catch! I asked if the one in game is correct or if it should be the one from the announcement.
PhoenixFenix
Baronet
So the increase in Defense boost for the Fiore Village meant an increase in all ages except SAV according to game data. What for?
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They're apparently really sold on their concept of it. 5 more guild goods, 2 more goods, call it good. Ah well - when it comes to event buildings it's usually if you want to express your disappointment, just don't play the event.
Devilsangel
Baronet
As with the Fall Event many will play this one on live and maybe even spend lots of diamonds, especially on the new worlds were people still haven't accumulated good Attack Buildings (winners plaza) and lots of sentinel outposts that are way better than this fiore village....its just not going to be for the main prize but for the daily (winners plaza). So the statistics will wrongly show that players love the prize
Prom d Exolandia
Baronet
it is really nonsense to increase the earnings on this building. we already have too much of everything. Might as well give jam to pigs it will be more useful. The goal of the developers is to get us out of the game even faster?
jovada
Regent
It appears that without spending diamonds most of our guildies will struck on 1 upgrade to short.
I paid at the start 1800 diamonds to test the extra prizes , that was really a wast because there is not a single prize there that is worth something and if you are very lucky you can claim 12 (worthless) prizes from the 36. For the other 24 you have to spend a lot of diamonds more.
I paid at the start 1800 diamonds to test the extra prizes , that was really a wast because there is not a single prize there that is worth something and if you are very lucky you can claim 12 (worthless) prizes from the 36. For the other 24 you have to spend a lot of diamonds more.
My math suggests you'd finish the grand prize with baseline footballs, if you had the event box, and if you used the +1 yard coach (or ultimate coach) with short-yardage plays barely (including about 600 footballs from incidents).
So yea, there'd be a lot of room to mess it up. I think this lines up with past forge-bowls expectations as well (whether we like it or not).
Summary:
Football Count:
70 balls * 35 rush quests = 2450
140 balls * 21 daily quests = 2940
110 balls * 22 logins = 2420
total = 7810 balls
Edit: +1150 balls for milestone = 8960
Yard efficiency order (with +1 yd)
41 for 5, 25% of the time
48 for 5, 25% of the time
49 for 5, 25% of the time
60 for 6, 8.3% of the time
62 for 6, 8.3% of the time
74 for 7, 2.8% of the time (edit: actually not helpful inserting this I realised after posting, but it only makes a difference of 0.01 footballs / yard - still makes it easier to instruct people as "always lowest cost" works without this)
64 for 6, 5.6% of the time
weighted average: 50.3 for 5.3 = 9.53 footballs / yard
Starting from a lv 4 building (lv 3 from milestones + 1 from surprise box):
Need 6 upgrades = 11 grandprizes = 880 yards. 880 * 9.53 = 8387 balls. Short 577 - call it 600 balls that you'll need from incidents or diamonds. I feel it's reasonable to get 600 from incidents - but the math is very tight to be dependent on that
(I also think this is consistent with past forge bowls balancing - I guess it's the price for it being a very good event to win daily specials in (and given the disappointment with the main prize, a reasonable alternative if you don't use the ultimate coach is to use the +5% special coach and just not care about the main building)
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So, new players are denied from ever hoping to get it and those who've skipped the winter casino too. New players in particular as they might've joined after the winter event concluded (maybe just barely) and not been able to grind the needed 150 diamonds for the couch. Even if they've learned from older players to using the couch and stacking up diamonds for it. Pretty grim knowledge but thanks for tackling the math.
Much appreciated to not relay on estimates. My main problem of the need to get those dubious event boxes. Wouldn't it be more fun if it where boxes for the running event, instead of an requirement for the next event?
So, new players are denied from ever hoping to get it and those who've skipped the winter casino too. New players in particular as they might've joined after the winter event concluded (maybe just barely) and not been able to grind the needed 150 diamonds for the couch. Even if they've learned from older players to using the couch and stacking up diamonds for it. Pretty grim knowledge but thanks for tackling the math.
My main problem of the need to get those dubious event boxes. Wouldn't it be more fun if it where boxes for the running event, instead of an requirement for the next event?
I think they do it to get people to play events they don't like. "But what if you care about next event instead?"
It's simulation time! I wrote a simple script to simulate the minigame, assuming that each player type has the same chance of being picked, and each player within a type has the same chance. I'll include it at the end if you wanna have a look or check if anything is wrong Here are my results based on 100k games (for each starting amount):
EDIT: I based the starting numbers on xiv's post, seems he forgot to add the milestones per his edit So, actual starting balls should be 8960. In that case things are improved quite a bit, bumping average to just above 938 yards. Practically everybody who go for most efficient choices and use the yard coach (or dia coach) will get the 11th grand prize. Still doesn't make up for the fact that without the event surprise box you can't get it. And if we look at numbers without the yard coach, the average is around 760 yards, far far away from the 11th grand prize.
I also checked if you focused on daily specials while using the diamond coach. The average number of yards was 926, so pretty much guaranteed to get the 11th grand prize even if you go for daily specials (and yard coach for spending whatever you have remaining at the end)
END EDIT
Assuming you start with 7810 eggballs, use the yard (or diamond) coach, and you focus on yard efficiency, you'll get on average 817.25 yards, or 9.56 balls/yard (very close to your estimate @xivarmy).
Adding 600 balls (8410 total) the average jumps up to 880.26 yards, with the vast majority of players above 870 (so relatively close, but still sucks if you don't reach it)
It's interesting that there are 2 more levels to the main building this time,but you get 1k fewer balls compared to last year. Nothing else seems to have changed, so not quite sure what the reasoning is behind this. Surely if the goal was to nerf daily specials you could adjust the percentages rather than make it hard to get the grand prize? Simulating with 8880 balls, the average yards is 929.6. That's perfectly balanced. Practically speaking everyone will get a the 11th grand prize at 880, but at the same time practically nobody reaches the 12th without incidents or diamonds. Just out of interest, if we add 600 from incidents ontop of that the average is 992.55. Again, practically everybody will get the 12th grand prize, but practically nobody will get the 13th.
Of course, this is assuming you play efficiently. How many casual players check each time what the "best" choice is? For fun, I simulated picking a reward at random as well with 7810 balls. Average yards was 705.14, which means most won't even get the 9th grand prize. Of course, most casual players would probably be somewhere in between this and most efficient choices.
TL;DR - getting a fully levelled main building is possible, but requires the yard coach. The event is very unfriendly to new / casual players when it comes to the Grand Prizes, you're not able to get fully leveled main building without event surprise box.
Here are my results based on 100k games (for each starting amount):EDIT: I based the starting numbers on xiv's post, seems he forgot to add the milestones per his edit
So, actual starting balls should be 8960. In that case things are improved quite a bit, bumping average to just above 938 yards. Practically everybody who go for most efficient choices and use the yard coach (or dia coach) will get the 11th grand prize. Still doesn't make up for the fact that without the event surprise box you can't get it. And if we look at numbers without the yard coach, the average is around 760 yards, far far away from the 11th grand prize.I also checked if you focused on daily specials while using the diamond coach. The average number of yards was 926, so pretty much guaranteed to get the 11th grand prize even if you go for daily specials (and yard coach for spending whatever you have remaining at the end)
END EDIT
Assuming you start with 7810 eggballs, use the yard (or diamond) coach, and you focus on yard efficiency, you'll get on average 817.25 yards, or 9.56 balls/yard (very close to your estimate @xivarmy
).Adding 600 balls (8410 total) the average jumps up to 880.26 yards, with the vast majority of players above 870 (so relatively close, but still sucks if you don't reach it)
It's interesting that there are 2 more levels to the main building this time,
Of course, this is assuming you play efficiently. How many casual players check each time what the "best" choice is? For fun, I simulated picking a reward at random as well with 7810 balls. Average yards was 705.14, which means most won't even get the 9th grand prize. Of course, most casual players would probably be somewhere in between this and most efficient choices.
TL;DR - getting a fully levelled main building is possible, but requires the yard coach. The event is very unfriendly to new / casual players when it comes to the Grand Prizes, you're not able to get fully leveled main building without event surprise box.
7810 balls, +1 yard, choosing most efficient yard/ball
8410 balls (600 incidents), +1 yard, choosing most efficient yard/ball
8880 balls (last year's total), +1 yard, choosing most efficient yard/ball
7810 balls, +1 yard, choosing random player
8410 balls (600 incidents), +1 yard, choosing most efficient yard/ball
8880 balls (last year's total), +1 yard, choosing most efficient yard/ball
7810 balls, +1 yard, choosing random player
Code:
import random
import numpy as np
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
# Set both to true for diamond coach
# yard coach active?
yBoost = True
# daily special coach active?
dBoost = True
# True = maximize DS, False = maximize yards
maxDs = False
# Starting eggballs
eggs = 7810#+600
d = 0
y = 0
costs = [105,101,104,78,76,74,62,64,60,41,48,49]
yds = [7,7,7,6,6,6,5,5,5,4,4,4]
ds = [0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05]
dailies = []
yards = []
def bestD(ids):
#return random.choice([x for x in range(len(ids))])
dCost = [costs[ids[x]]/(ds[ids[x]]+0.05*int(dBoost)) for x in range(len(ids))]
b = min(dCost)
return dCost.index(b)
def bestY(ids):
#return random.choice([x for x in range(len(ids))])
yCost = [costs[ids[x]]/(yds[ids[x]]+1*int(yBoost)) for x in range(len(ids))]
b = min(yCost)
return yCost.index(b)
for i in range(100000):
if i % 10000 == 0:
print(i)
e = eggs
d = 0
y = 0
while True:
# Pick 3 players
ps = random.sample([0,3,6,9],3)
num = [random.choice([0,1,2]),random.choice([0,1,2]),random.choice([0,1,2])]
ids = [ps[x]+num[x] for x in range(3)]
# Check if you can afford any of the players, remove the ones you can't or exit if you can't afford any
if e < 105:
for x in range(3):
if e < costs[ids[2-x]]:
del ids[2-x]
if(len(ids) == 0):
break
# Get best choice
if maxDs:
b = bestD(ids)
else:
b = bestY(ids)
b = ids[b]
# Update results based on choice
e -= costs[b]
d += 1 if random.random() < ds[b]+0.05*int(dBoost) else 0
y += yds[b] + 1*int(yBoost)
dailies.append(d)
yards.append(y)
# Show plots of results
showplot = True
if showplot:
label = "Daily Specials"
rmin = min(dailies)
rmax = max(dailies)
freq, bins, patches = plt.hist(dailies,edgecolor='white', label=label, bins=range(rmin,rmax,1))
print("Average DS:",np.average(dailies))
bin_centers = np.diff(bins)*0.5 + bins[:-1]
n = 0
for fr, x, patch in zip(freq, bin_centers, patches):
height = (freq[n]/len(dailies))
plt.annotate("{}".format(height),
xy = (x, height*len(dailies)), # top left corner of the histogram bar
xytext = (0,0.2), # offsetting label position above its bar
textcoords = "offset points", # Offset (in points) from the *xy* value
ha = 'center', va = 'bottom'
)
n = n+1
plt.legend()
plt.show()
# Yard graph will show after you close daily special graph
label = "Yards"
rmin = min(yards)
rmax = max(yards)
freq, bins, patches = plt.hist(yards,edgecolor='white', label=label, bins=range(rmin,rmax,1))
print("Average Yards:",np.average(yards))
bin_centers = np.diff(bins)*0.5 + bins[:-1]
n = 0
for fr, x, patch in zip(freq, bin_centers, patches):
height = (freq[n]/len(yards))
plt.annotate("{}".format(height),
xy = (x, height*len(yards)), # top left corner of the histogram bar
xytext = (0,0.2), # offsetting label position above its bar
textcoords = "offset points", # Offset (in points) from the *xy* value
ha = 'center', va = 'bottom'
)
n = n+1
plt.legend()
plt.show()
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So, new players are denied from ever hoping to get it and those who've skipped the winter casino too. New players in particular as they might've joined after the winter event concluded (maybe just barely) and not been able to grind the needed 150 diamonds for the couch. Even if they've learned from older players to using the couch and stacking up diamonds for it. Pretty grim knowledge but thanks for tackling the math.
My main problem of the need to get those dubious event boxes. Wouldn't it be more fun if it where boxes for the running event, instead of an requirement for the next event?
Oops, small correction - omitted the 800+350 for the milestone! So somewhat more comfortable, as long as you have the event box. But you do still likely need to use +1 yard coach most of the time.
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Edited my post a bit to add the 800 milestone
TL;DR - You will get the 11th grand prize if you use the yard or dia coach. Without there's no chance, you might not even get the 9th grand prize. No chance to get fully leveled for free if you don't have surprise box.
The first milestone too haha. That'll teach ya for trusting my math
With the starting balls corrected, it's about 940 footballs short without the surprise box and with the +1 yard - seems a bit of a stretch for incidents - but you'd be close, maybe just a little diamonds to finish.
With the surprise box, but without the +1 yard.... you still wind up 1400 balls short - so +1 yard is definitely mandatory.
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If doing it without diamonds, yes you do have to skip spending footballs on some days in order to only use the +1 yard coach.
(I would personally recommend spending a little diamonds to use the ultimate coach on a day you like the daily special instead though)
Ironrooster
Baronet
The coach is good for 24 hours. So don't pick at the very start of a day, wait few hours and you can span 2 days worth of footballs.
I accumulate footballs until I really like the daily special and then get the coach. Of course the last day you have to blow all the rest of the footballs on whatever the last daily special (or alternate random selection) is. That's how I got 5 mad scientist's labs on the last day of the Halloween event LOL.
One thing to keep in mind is the league rewards, though not sure how realistic it is to get that. You'd definitely need the diamond coach for 2x progression towards that, but even with that I'm not sure how realistic it is. You'd probably have to activate diamond coach more than once. Assuming you can get 930 yards, that's 1860 points towards the league. With 5 days remaining the cutoff is 1575, was 1800 last year, so that might be achievable. Not sure how realistic it will be on live, though, this is a great event to spend diamonds on so imagine quite a few will be spending. Only top 5% get a kit from the league rewards, so probably not achievable for casual players.