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Feedback Winter Event 2021

planetofthehumans2

Emperor
10/27 I officially was unable to find calendar key daily due to running out of stars. Probably did a lot better than most. A better way of rewarding daily plays is just to give the key on the first present of the day. On live halloween event, nobody even want the calendar price just because it takes away the opportunity for a good daily price (which odds are already against the player to get, need as much opportunity as possible), should players really be forced to pick one or the other because clearly most have chosen not the calendar price.

Multiple key is ok, it's not going to make up for the remaining 10 calendar days I won't be able to obtain though.
 
Fenix

Fenix

Viceroy
This is almost over, I have some key fragments and I would like to use them.
Can someone please disclose the awards that came out on the calendar? Thanks.
 

BritishBoy

Marquis
Didn't even bothered myself with calendar. For whole event duration base stars + whatever from present gave 189 matches and 14 dailies. I am happy. Thank you Inno :)
 
vidicecilia

vidicecilia

Baronet
Hi!
This Winter Event has been so sad that I still am waiting for something, a surprise, a great gift like the Monumental Graveyard that was delivered on Halloween, something, please !!!! Winter Event is an important milestone in the year. This date can't happen unceremoniously. :(:(:(
 

King Cruzer the Great

Farmer
The calendar has become very important with previous events. I was disappointed that it was not possible to get all the doors open without paying, this time. Although it was easy to get the complete building without the colander this time.
 
MooingCat

MooingCat

Viceroy
Spoiler Poster
I was able to pick up a total of 13 keys/fragments, far from the 32 required. If I did the daily challenges I could have gotten .. 6-7 more? Still far from 32. I was probably a bit on the unlucky side, but the fact that you practically can't get the calendar for free really sucks after the massive improvements that were made for the Archaeology/Halloween events. Would love it if some of the suggested changes from this thread were implemented, but suppose it's too late now.
 
MooingCat

MooingCat

Viceroy
Spoiler Poster
To take it a step further in regards to keys, I wrote a simple script to simulate the minigame. Because it's purely down to chance and because each board is the same when it comes to keys (same number of keys and other rewards that impact keys/stars you get per board), it should be accurate. The only part of the minigame that's not purely random that the player has any impact on is the choices made when the show 2 is picked. So the script takes that into consideration, picking the double, daily special (because you would go for this even if your goal is keys), key or stars if those are visible, if not ignoring the two shown rewards. The script "stops" each day after a key is found, so that the player gets a free shuffle each midnight. In other words, optimal play if you want to go for 1 key each day.

I simulated 100k games with 1355 starting stars, which are the free stars you can get. There are 32 doors, so 32 keys required. Out of those 100k games ... none managed to pick up 32 keys. Of course, you also have the daily challenges, which should give you 9 keys on average, so you "only" need 23 from the minigame. Well .. in that case a whopping 0.6% of the simulated games managed to get enough keys.

If we bump the starting stars up to 2000 stars, which I think is a very generous amount from incidents, the story is a bit better. 41% of the game got 23+ keys, but only 0.5% got 32+. Only a bit better than 1/3 chance if you have that many stars? I think it clearly shows that the calendar is very flawed in it's current state. You did a great job improving it from last winter to archaeology/halloween, in those events it's actual a valid strategy to go for it, but for this event it's practically impossible to get it for free.

The main reason I made the script was for daily specials, so for those interested I also simulated games going for daily specials (same "show 2" strat as above, except it picks "shuffle" if daily special has been found), here's the distribution for that:
unknown.png

This is just something I threw together quickly, so probably a bit difficult to read xD Basically I 1) generate a random "board", 2) pick rewards from the board until the shuffle is picked, each time spending 10 stars and possibly gaining some stars if those rewards are picked, 3) generate new board when "shuffle" is picked, or when a key is found to simulate waiting for a new day, 4) when all stars are spent, the game is over, and results are added to a list. This is then repeated for 100k "players", with 1355 starting stars each (change "starting" to change this).
Code: 
import random
import math
import numpy as np
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
def getRandomList():
    # 4 - shuffle, 5 - key, 15 - daily, 20 - double
    l = [3,14,4,5,15,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
    random.shuffle(l)
    return l
def pickPresent(l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k):
    i = 0
    t = False
    if(len(l2) > 0):
        if sum(l2) > 0:
            if (dsFound and not keys) and 4 in l2:
                i = l2.index(4)
                t = True
            elif 4 in l2:
                if sum(l2) == 4:
                    i = random.choice(range(len(l)))
                else:
                    i = l2.index(sum(l2)-4)
                    t = True
            else:
                i = l2.index(max(l2))
                t = True
        else:
            i = random.choice(range(len(l)))
    else:
        i = random.choice(range(len(l)))
    if t:
        res = l2[i]
        del l2[i]
        del i2[i]
    else:    
        res = l[i]
        del l[i]
    if res == 0:
        # nothing
        #print(0)
        d = 1
    elif res == 3:
        i2 = random.sample(range(len(l)),min(2,len(l)))
        l2 = [l[i2[x]] for x in range(len(i2))]
        del l[max(i2)]
        if len(i2) > 1:
            del l[min(i2)]
        s += 3*d
        #print(3*d,"stars + show 2:",l2)
    elif res == 4:
        l2 = []
        i2 = []
        l = getRandomList()
        dsFound = False
        s += 10*d
        #print(10*d,"stars + shuffle:",l)
        return l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k
    elif res == 5:
        k += 1
        if d == 2:
            k += 0.2
            s += 10
        if keys:
            l2 = []
            i2 = []
            l = getRandomList()
            dsFound = False
        else:
            s += 10
        #print(d,"key(s) +",d*10,"stars")
    elif res == 14:
        s += 14*d
        #print(d*14,"stars")
    elif res == 15:
        ds += 1*d
        dsFound = True
        #print(d,"Daily Special(s)")
    elif res == 20:
        d = 2
        #print("Double")
    if res == 20:
        d = 2
    else:
        d = 1
    
    
    return l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k
keys = True
# Stars
results = []
for x in range(100000):
    if x % 10000 == 0:
        print(x)
    starting = 1355
    s = starting
    ds = 0
    k = 0
    l = getRandomList()
    l2 = []
    i2 = []
    dsFound = False
    d = 1
    c = 0
    while s >= 10:
        s -= 10
        c += 1
        l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k = pickPresent(l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k)
    if keys:
        results.append(math.floor(k))
    else: #daily specials  
        results.append(ds)
# a histogram returns 3 objects : n (i.e. frequncies), bins, patches
showplot = True
if showplot:
    label = "Keys" if keys else "Daily Specials"
    freq, bins, patches = plt.hist(results,edgecolor='white', label=label, bins=range(0,50,1))
    for x in range(len(freq)):
        print(freq[x])
    # x coordinate for labels
    bin_centers = np.diff(bins)*0.5 + bins[:-1]
    n = 0
    for fr, x, patch in zip(freq, bin_centers, patches):
        height = (freq[n]/len(results))
        plt.annotate("{}".format(height),
                    xy = (x, height*len(results)),             # top left corner of the histogram bar
                    xytext = (0,0.2),             # offsetting label position above its bar
                    textcoords = "offset points", # Offset (in points) from the *xy* value
                    ha = 'center', va = 'bottom'
                    )
        n = n+1
    plt.legend()
    plt.show()
# For last game
printStats = False
if printStats:
    print("---------")
    print("Totals")
    print("Starting stars:",starting,"Stars spent:",c*10,"( 10 ->",c*100/starting,")")
    print("Stars Back per Turn:",(c*10-starting)/c)
    print("Candles:",c)
    print("(Starting) Stars per Candle:",starting/c)
    print("Daily Specials:",ds)
    print("(Starting) Stars per Daily Special",starting/ds)
 
Devilsangel

Devilsangel

Baronet
Inno outdid itself this year...even Grinch couldn't have ruined Christmas this much...if you cut down on stars by this much at least be wise enough to cut down the amount of useless Prizes (number of presents per field)
 

xivarmy

Overlord
Perk Creator
Devilsangel said:
Inno outdid itself this year...even Grinch couldn't have ruined Christmas this much...if you cut down on stars by this much at least be wise enough to cut down the amount of useless Prizes (number of presents per field)
Click to expand...

This does seem to be the trend in recent christmas events. They feel this event is our chance to give them presents rather than vice-versa :p

The reindeer noone liked and still has not gone away.
The calendar noone liked and still has not gone away.
Now a massive cutback in event currency this year between beta and live.
 
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