CrashBoom
Legend
it was at progress 0 !!! so directly ready to collect at start of the event
and a second at 100 progress
so how can't you have those 2 base buildings ?
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Feedback Summer Event 2023
- Thread starter Juber
- Start date
and a second at 100 progress
so how can't you have those 2 base buildings ?
Kronan
Viceroy
I threw a bunch (2 buys of 1050 diamonds = 2100 total) of Inno's FREE beta compensation diamonds at the event, this morning. But you're right. I just don't (can't) see how the math is going to work without that - for ANYONE.
You're right again - glad we (beta) caught it - vs releasing this to live and watching it unfold incorrectly as well.
If someone knows of "the magical" path to "do-ability" given the design of how we in beta got it, I'd love to see the math from whoever has it figured out.
It didn't seem too far off with my back of the envelope math.
330 login + 670 quests + 100 milestones = ~1100 doubloons.
13 stars refunded out of 16 treasures = .08125
.08125+0.08125^2+0.08125^3+... = 0.0884
So about 9.116 doubloons per treasure.
The show-2 and double could improve that a little.
1100/9.116 = ~120 presents = ~240 grand prize progress.
You need 280 for the building, so short 40 progress = 20 presents = ~182 doubloons.
Some slight tweaks to the currency given should fix that (and they did say more changes were coming). Say add 5 per to the daily quests (=+160), and increase the 2nd milestone to 100 (=+50).
Vic.Vicious
Marquis
So analyzing the change from back of the envelope math:
New doubloon total: 25*33+30*32+10*35 + 50*2 = 2235 doubloons
Openable chests (@9.2 doubloons each): ~243
Grand Prize Progress: 243*1.5 = 365. Looks comfortable.
Calendar might be a bit of a nightmare now though. That Skull Rock just got a lot more expensive! (always took diamonds; but now you probably need to spend somewhere closer to 200 doubloons a day on average to find the key)
UBERhelp1
Viceroy
New event changes dropped! First time in a while we've had buffs rather than nerfs for event currency 
Some analysis/back of the napkin math:
You get 2265 doubloons now:
And xivarmy beat me to it
Some analysis/back of the napkin math:
You get 2265 doubloons now:
- 110 from milestones/start
- 340 from main quests
- 33 * 25 = 825 from daily free currency
- 33 * 30 = 990 from daily quests
- Total: 2265 doubloons
And xivarmy beat me to it
Last edited:
The change is definitely good, but I don't understand the focus on making the calendar unachievable ... With the update it went from a very low chance of completing it, to absolutely impossible:
I updated my simulator to only give a key every 3rd game (1/3 chance of giving key each board), which gives the result above. If you do all daily challenges you can get 14 keys, so you need 18 from the minigame. As seen in the graph, none of the 10k playthroughs I simulated resulted in enough keys. As a reminder, this is when you play every day until you find a key, then stop.
Updating to a key every other game doesn't help much:
But if things were just kept as is, it would be really well balanced!
That would mean that if you do every daily challenge and completely shift your playstyle towards keys, you would have a very high chance of succeeding. That's completely reasonable to me, and would make it an actually interesting way of playing the event. But with the current balancing there's not really any choice to make, it's not worth focusing on the calendar.
I updated my simulator to only give a key every 3rd game (1/3 chance of giving key each board), which gives the result above. If you do all daily challenges you can get 14 keys, so you need 18 from the minigame. As seen in the graph, none of the 10k playthroughs I simulated resulted in enough keys. As a reminder, this is when you play every day until you find a key, then stop.
Updating to a key every other game doesn't help much:
But if things were just kept as is, it would be really well balanced!
That would mean that if you do every daily challenge and completely shift your playstyle towards keys, you would have a very high chance of succeeding. That's completely reasonable to me, and would make it an actually interesting way of playing the event. But with the current balancing there's not really any choice to make, it's not worth focusing on the calendar.
Code:
from simulator import simulator
# Number of stars you start off with
startingStars = 2255
# If True, simulate stopping after finding each daily key. If False, spend all the same day.
goForKeys = True
# Required Progress (for your goal, 300 for 1 full building)
requiredProgress = 280
# Number of keys required for calendar (you can get ~11 for free from daily challenges)
numKeys = 32-14
# Number of Simulations
simNum = 10000
simulator(startingStars,goForKeys,requiredProgress,numKeys,simNum)
Code:
import random
import math
import numpy as np
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
def simulator(startingStars,goForKeys,requiredProgress,numKeys,simNum):
# Show plots
showPlots = True
# Fragments required
fragments = 4
def getRandomList():
# 4 - shuffle, 5 - key, 15 - daily, 20 - double
if random.random() <= 1/3:
mainList = [3,4,5,15,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
else:
mainList = [3,4,0,15,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
random.shuffle(mainList)
return mainList
def pickPresent(days,mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,stars,doubleFound,dailySpecials,keys,firstKey):
pickIndex = 0
showTwoPicked = False
# If any revealed presents are available
if(len(showTwoList) > 0):
# If any of the revealed presents are of interest
if sum(showTwoList) > 0:
# If shuffle is in the list of revealed presents and you have already found the daily special (and you're not going for keys), choose shuffle.
if (dsFound and (not goForKeys or (days > 32))) and 4 in showTwoList:
pickIndex = showTwoList.index(4)
showTwoPicked = True
# If shuffle is in the list (and daily hasn't been found)
elif 4 in showTwoList:
# If *only* shuffle is in the list, pick a random present from the main list
if goForKeys and 5 not in mainList:
pickIndex = showTwoList.index(4)
showTwoPicked = True
elif sum(showTwoList) == 4:
pickIndex = random.choice(range(len(mainList)))
# If not, pick the other reward of interest :)
else:
pickIndex = showTwoList.index(sum(showTwoList)-4)
showTwoPicked = True
# If shuffle is not in the list, pick the highest priority: Double > Daily > 14 Stars > Key
else:
pickIndex = showTwoList.index(max(showTwoList))
showTwoPicked = True
# If nothing good in show 2 list, pick random from main list
else:
pickIndex = random.choice(range(len(mainList)))
# If show 2 hasn't been picked, pick a random present
else:
pickIndex = random.choice(range(len(mainList)))
# If show 2 has been picked, get chosen reward and remove it from the show 2 list
if showTwoPicked:
res = showTwoList[pickIndex]
del showTwoList[pickIndex]
del showTwoIndex[pickIndex]
# Otherwise get chosen present from main list and remove it from the list
else:
res = mainList[pickIndex]
del mainList[pickIndex]
# If reward is "show 2", pick 2 random rewards and add them to a separate list.
if res == 3:
showTwoIndex = random.sample(range(len(mainList)),min(2,len(mainList)))
showTwoList = [mainList[showTwoIndex[x]] for x in range(len(showTwoIndex))]
del mainList[max(showTwoIndex)]
if len(showTwoIndex) > 1:
del mainList[min(showTwoIndex)]
stars += 3*doubleFound
# If reward is "shuffle", clear lists and get a brand new main list. Add stars and reset daily found.
elif res == 4:
showTwoList = []
showTwoIndex = []
mainList = getRandomList()
dsFound = False
stars += 10*doubleFound
# If result is "key"
elif res == 5:
# If going for calendar, add a full key, otherwise add a fragment instead (0.2 keys)
#keys += 1 if goForKeys else 1/fragments
# If you're going for keys, and you haven't picked up keys for 32 days yet (lol, never happens for free xD), then reset
# the lists and get a new one. This simulates waiting for the next day. Increment days to keep track of how many has passed.
if goForKeys and (days <= 32):
keys += 1
days += 1
showTwoList = []
showTwoIndex = []
mainList = getRandomList()
dsFound = False
# If you're not going for keys, add 10 stars to stars remaining instead (in addition to the fragment above)
else:
if firstKey:
keys += 1
firstKey = False
else:
keys += 1/fragments
#stars += 10
# If double is found, add additional key fragment and stars
if doubleFound == 2:
keys += 1/fragments
#stars += 10
# If "14 Stars" is picked, add 14 stars to stars remaining
elif res == 14:
stars += 14*doubleFound
# If "daily special" is found, add it and note that daily has been found.
elif res == 15:
dailySpecials += 1*doubleFound
dsFound = True
# If "double reward" is picked, double next reward.
if res == 20:
doubleFound = 2
else: # Otherwise reset double found
doubleFound = 1
return days, mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,stars,doubleFound,dailySpecials,keys,firstKey
# Lists to track results
keys = []
dailies = []
matches = []
gpProgress = []
# Run through "simNum" number of simulations, simulating a full "playthrough" of the event each time (with your parameters)
for x in range(simNum):
# Print status every 10% :)
if x % round(simNum/10) == 0:
print(round((x/simNum)*100),"%")
# Number of starting stars
remainingStars = startingStars
# Variables to store results for this simulation
resDS = 0
resKeys = 0
resMatches = 0
# Other variables for this simulation
double = 1
days = 0
mainList = getRandomList()
showTwoList = []
showTwoIndex = []
dsFound = False
firstKey = True
while remainingStars >= 10:
remainingStars -= 10
resMatches += 1
days,mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,remainingStars,double,resDS,resKeys,firstKey = pickPresent(days,mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,remainingStars,double,resDS,resKeys,firstKey)
dailies.append(resDS)
keys.append(math.floor(resKeys))
matches.append(resMatches)
gp = 0
for _ in range(resMatches):
gp += random.choice([1,2])
gpProgress.append(gp)
printStats = True
if printStats:
c = np.average(matches)
dailySpecials = np.average(dailies)
avgKeys = np.average(keys)
gp = np.average(gpProgress)
kU = [k for k in keys if k < numKeys]
kO = [k for k in keys if k >= numKeys]
cU = round(100*(len(kU)/len(keys)),2)
cO = round(100*(len(kO)/len(keys)),2)
gppU = [k for k in gpProgress if k < requiredProgress]
gppO = [k for k in gpProgress if k >= requiredProgress]
if len(gppU) == 0:
gppU.append(0)
if len(gppO) == 0:
gppO.append(0)
gpU = round(100*(len(gppU)/len(gpProgress)),2)
gpO = round(100*(len(gppO)/len(gpProgress)),2)
try:
maxM = requiredProgress - min(gpProgress)
except Exception:
maxM = 999
try:
avgM = round(requiredProgress - np.average(gppU),2)
except Exception:
avgM = 999
try:
meanM = int(requiredProgress-np.median(gppU))
except Exception:
meanM = 999
print("---------")
if goForKeys:
print("Average Totals (going for Keys):")
else:
print("Average Totals (going for Dailies):")
print("Starting stars:",startingStars)
print("Stars spent:",round(c*10,2),"(x" + str(round(c*10/startingStars,3)) + ")")
print()
print("Matches:",round(c,2))
print("Stars* per Match:",round(startingStars/c,2))
print()
print("Daily Specials:",round(dailySpecials,2))
print("Stars* per Daily Special:",round(startingStars/dailySpecials,2))
print()
print("Grand Prize Progress:",round(gp,2))
print("Stars* per Grand Prize Progress:",round(startingStars/gp,2))
print("Change of getting Full Building:",str(gpO) + "%")
print("When missing progress:")
print("Maximum Missing Progress:",str(maxM))
print("Average Missing Progress:",str(avgM))
print()
print("Keys:",round(avgKeys,2))
print("Stars* per Key:",round(startingStars/avgKeys,2))
print("Chance of getting",numKeys,"keys:",str(cO) + "%")
print()
print("")
print()
print("*Starting Stars")
if showPlots:
labels = ["Keys","Dailies","Grand Prize Progress","Matches"]
results = [keys,dailies,gpProgress,matches]
fig, ax = plt.subplots(4,1,figsize=(10,21))
#fig, ax = plt.subplots(3,1,figsize=(10,15))
for i in range(4):
label = labels[i]
rmin = min(results[i])
rmax = max(results[i])
ax[i].hist(results[i],edgecolor='white', label=label, bins=range(rmin,rmax,1))
#ax.set_title(label)
if i == 0:
ax[i].axvline(x = numKeys, color = "r", label = str(numKeys) + " Required for Calendar")
if i == 2:
ax[i].axvline(x = requiredProgress, color = "r", label = "Required for Target")
ax[i].legend()
c = np.average(matches)
gppU = [k for k in gpProgress if k < requiredProgress]
gppO = [k for k in gpProgress if k >= requiredProgress]
if len(gppU) == 0:
gppU.append(0)
if len(gppO) == 0:
gppO.append(0)
gpU = round(100*(len(gppU)/len(gpProgress)),2)
gpO = round(100*(len(gppO)/len(gpProgress)),2)
try:
maxM = requiredProgress - min(gpProgress)
except Exception:
maxM = 999
try:
avgM = round(requiredProgress - np.average(gppU),2)
except Exception:
avgM = 999
try:
meanM = int(requiredProgress-np.median(gppU))
except Exception:
meanM = 999
mode = "(Daily Special Focus)" if not goForKeys else "(Keys Focus)"
fig.suptitle("Expected Grand Prize Progress w/ " + str(startingStars) + " Starting Stars " + mode + "\nActual stars spent (average): " + str(round(c*10,2)) +
" | Chance of Reaching Target: " + str(gpO) + "%\nMissing Progress (when target not reached): Max: " + str(maxM) + " | Average: " + str(avgM) + " | Median: " + str(meanM))
plt.show()There is a little room for improvement on this:The change is definitely good, but I don't understand the focus on making the calendar unachievable ... With the update it went from a very low chance of completing it, to absolutely impossible:
I updated my simulator to only give a key every 3rd game (1/3 chance of giving key each board), which gives the result above. If you do all daily challenges you can get 14 keys, so you need 18 from the minigame. As seen in the graph, none of the 10k playthroughs I simulated resulted in enough keys. As a reminder, this is when you play every day until you find a key, then stop.
Updating to a key every other game doesn't help much:
But if things were just kept as is, it would be really well balanced!
That would mean that if you do every daily challenge and completely shift your playstyle towards keys, you would have a very high chance of succeeding. That's completely reasonable to me, and would make it an actually interesting way of playing the event. But with the current balancing there's not really any choice to make, it's not worth focusing on the calendar.
Code:from simulator import simulator # Number of stars you start off with startingStars = 2255 # If True, simulate stopping after finding each daily key. If False, spend all the same day. goForKeys = True # Required Progress (for your goal, 300 for 1 full building) requiredProgress = 280 # Number of keys required for calendar (you can get ~11 for free from daily challenges) numKeys = 32-14 # Number of Simulations simNum = 10000 simulator(startingStars,goForKeys,requiredProgress,numKeys,simNum)Code:import random import math import numpy as np from matplotlib import pyplot as plt def simulator(startingStars,goForKeys,requiredProgress,numKeys,simNum): # Show plots showPlots = True # Fragments required fragments = 4 def getRandomList(): # 4 - shuffle, 5 - key, 15 - daily, 20 - double if random.random() <= 1/3: mainList = [3,4,5,15,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0] else: mainList = [3,4,0,15,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0] random.shuffle(mainList) return mainList def pickPresent(days,mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,stars,doubleFound,dailySpecials,keys,firstKey): pickIndex = 0 showTwoPicked = False # If any revealed presents are available if(len(showTwoList) > 0): # If any of the revealed presents are of interest if sum(showTwoList) > 0: # If shuffle is in the list of revealed presents and you have already found the daily special (and you're not going for keys), choose shuffle. if (dsFound and (not goForKeys or (days > 32))) and 4 in showTwoList: pickIndex = showTwoList.index(4) showTwoPicked = True # If shuffle is in the list (and daily hasn't been found) elif 4 in showTwoList: # If *only* shuffle is in the list, pick a random present from the main list if goForKeys and 5 not in mainList: pickIndex = showTwoList.index(4) showTwoPicked = True elif sum(showTwoList) == 4: pickIndex = random.choice(range(len(mainList))) # If not, pick the other reward of interest :) else: pickIndex = showTwoList.index(sum(showTwoList)-4) showTwoPicked = True # If shuffle is not in the list, pick the highest priority: Double > Daily > 14 Stars > Key else: pickIndex = showTwoList.index(max(showTwoList)) showTwoPicked = True # If nothing good in show 2 list, pick random from main list else: pickIndex = random.choice(range(len(mainList))) # If show 2 hasn't been picked, pick a random present else: pickIndex = random.choice(range(len(mainList))) # If show 2 has been picked, get chosen reward and remove it from the show 2 list if showTwoPicked: res = showTwoList[pickIndex] del showTwoList[pickIndex] del showTwoIndex[pickIndex] # Otherwise get chosen present from main list and remove it from the list else: res = mainList[pickIndex] del mainList[pickIndex] # If reward is "show 2", pick 2 random rewards and add them to a separate list. if res == 3: showTwoIndex = random.sample(range(len(mainList)),min(2,len(mainList))) showTwoList = [mainList[showTwoIndex[x]] for x in range(len(showTwoIndex))] del mainList[max(showTwoIndex)] if len(showTwoIndex) > 1: del mainList[min(showTwoIndex)] stars += 3*doubleFound # If reward is "shuffle", clear lists and get a brand new main list. Add stars and reset daily found. elif res == 4: showTwoList = [] showTwoIndex = [] mainList = getRandomList() dsFound = False stars += 10*doubleFound # If result is "key" elif res == 5: # If going for calendar, add a full key, otherwise add a fragment instead (0.2 keys) #keys += 1 if goForKeys else 1/fragments # If you're going for keys, and you haven't picked up keys for 32 days yet (lol, never happens for free xD), then reset # the lists and get a new one. This simulates waiting for the next day. Increment days to keep track of how many has passed. if goForKeys and (days <= 32): keys += 1 days += 1 showTwoList = [] showTwoIndex = [] mainList = getRandomList() dsFound = False # If you're not going for keys, add 10 stars to stars remaining instead (in addition to the fragment above) else: if firstKey: keys += 1 firstKey = False else: keys += 1/fragments #stars += 10 # If double is found, add additional key fragment and stars if doubleFound == 2: keys += 1/fragments #stars += 10 # If "14 Stars" is picked, add 14 stars to stars remaining elif res == 14: stars += 14*doubleFound # If "daily special" is found, add it and note that daily has been found. elif res == 15: dailySpecials += 1*doubleFound dsFound = True # If "double reward" is picked, double next reward. if res == 20: doubleFound = 2 else: # Otherwise reset double found doubleFound = 1 return days, mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,stars,doubleFound,dailySpecials,keys,firstKey # Lists to track results keys = [] dailies = [] matches = [] gpProgress = [] # Run through "simNum" number of simulations, simulating a full "playthrough" of the event each time (with your parameters) for x in range(simNum): # Print status every 10% :) if x % round(simNum/10) == 0: print(round((x/simNum)*100),"%") # Number of starting stars remainingStars = startingStars # Variables to store results for this simulation resDS = 0 resKeys = 0 resMatches = 0 # Other variables for this simulation double = 1 days = 0 mainList = getRandomList() showTwoList = [] showTwoIndex = [] dsFound = False firstKey = True while remainingStars >= 10: remainingStars -= 10 resMatches += 1 days,mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,remainingStars,double,resDS,resKeys,firstKey = pickPresent(days,mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,remainingStars,double,resDS,resKeys,firstKey) dailies.append(resDS) keys.append(math.floor(resKeys)) matches.append(resMatches) gp = 0 for _ in range(resMatches): gp += random.choice([1,2]) gpProgress.append(gp) printStats = True if printStats: c = np.average(matches) dailySpecials = np.average(dailies) avgKeys = np.average(keys) gp = np.average(gpProgress) kU = [k for k in keys if k < numKeys] kO = [k for k in keys if k >= numKeys] cU = round(100*(len(kU)/len(keys)),2) cO = round(100*(len(kO)/len(keys)),2) gppU = [k for k in gpProgress if k < requiredProgress] gppO = [k for k in gpProgress if k >= requiredProgress] if len(gppU) == 0: gppU.append(0) if len(gppO) == 0: gppO.append(0) gpU = round(100*(len(gppU)/len(gpProgress)),2) gpO = round(100*(len(gppO)/len(gpProgress)),2) try: maxM = requiredProgress - min(gpProgress) except Exception: maxM = 999 try: avgM = round(requiredProgress - np.average(gppU),2) except Exception: avgM = 999 try: meanM = int(requiredProgress-np.median(gppU)) except Exception: meanM = 999 print("---------") if goForKeys: print("Average Totals (going for Keys):") else: print("Average Totals (going for Dailies):") print("Starting stars:",startingStars) print("Stars spent:",round(c*10,2),"(x" + str(round(c*10/startingStars,3)) + ")") print() print("Matches:",round(c,2)) print("Stars* per Match:",round(startingStars/c,2)) print() print("Daily Specials:",round(dailySpecials,2)) print("Stars* per Daily Special:",round(startingStars/dailySpecials,2)) print() print("Grand Prize Progress:",round(gp,2)) print("Stars* per Grand Prize Progress:",round(startingStars/gp,2)) print("Change of getting Full Building:",str(gpO) + "%") print("When missing progress:") print("Maximum Missing Progress:",str(maxM)) print("Average Missing Progress:",str(avgM)) print() print("Keys:",round(avgKeys,2)) print("Stars* per Key:",round(startingStars/avgKeys,2)) print("Chance of getting",numKeys,"keys:",str(cO) + "%") print() print("") print() print("*Starting Stars") if showPlots: labels = ["Keys","Dailies","Grand Prize Progress","Matches"] results = [keys,dailies,gpProgress,matches] fig, ax = plt.subplots(4,1,figsize=(10,21)) #fig, ax = plt.subplots(3,1,figsize=(10,15)) for i in range(4): label = labels[i] rmin = min(results[i]) rmax = max(results[i]) ax[i].hist(results[i],edgecolor='white', label=label, bins=range(rmin,rmax,1)) #ax.set_title(label) if i == 0: ax[i].axvline(x = numKeys, color = "r", label = str(numKeys) + " Required for Calendar") if i == 2: ax[i].axvline(x = requiredProgress, color = "r", label = "Required for Target") ax[i].legend() c = np.average(matches) gppU = [k for k in gpProgress if k < requiredProgress] gppO = [k for k in gpProgress if k >= requiredProgress] if len(gppU) == 0: gppU.append(0) if len(gppO) == 0: gppO.append(0) gpU = round(100*(len(gppU)/len(gpProgress)),2) gpO = round(100*(len(gppO)/len(gpProgress)),2) try: maxM = requiredProgress - min(gpProgress) except Exception: maxM = 999 try: avgM = round(requiredProgress - np.average(gppU),2) except Exception: avgM = 999 try: meanM = int(requiredProgress-np.median(gppU)) except Exception: meanM = 999 mode = "(Daily Special Focus)" if not goForKeys else "(Keys Focus)" fig.suptitle("Expected Grand Prize Progress w/ " + str(startingStars) + " Starting Stars " + mode + "\nActual stars spent (average): " + str(round(c*10,2)) + " | Chance of Reaching Target: " + str(gpO) + "%\nMissing Progress (when target not reached): Max: " + str(maxM) + " | Average: " + str(avgM) + " | Median: " + str(meanM)) plt.show()
Assuming the state of key/not-a-key is correct pre-shuffle, you can (somewhat) choose ~10-11 days where you're likely to get the key faster because it's a possibility on first board if you don't get bit by the shuffle first. Can say ~6 of those are cheap successes (a bit better than 50/50 per board because of the show-2).
Your 14 wilds are obviously used on days where this was not the case. So That's up to ~20 keys. Leaving 12 Keys to be found the painful way of "maybe next board"
True! It definitely helps, but not by that much. I still think a key every board makes perfect sense considering all else you sacrifice going for this strategy.
Every third game:
Every other game:
Every game (no change):
Every other game:
Every game (no change):
Code:
from simulator import simulator
# Number of stars you start off with
startingStars = 2255
# If True, simulate stopping after finding each daily key. If False, spend all the same day.
goForKeys = True
# Required Progress (for your goal, 300 for 1 full building)
requiredProgress = 280
# Number of keys required for calendar (you can get ~11 for free from daily challenges)
numKeys = 32-14
# Number of Simulations
simNum = 10000
simulator(startingStars,goForKeys,requiredProgress,numKeys,simNum)
Code:
import random
import math
import numpy as np
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
def simulator(startingStars,goForKeys,requiredProgress,numKeys,simNum):
# Show plots
showPlots = True
# Fragments required
fragments = 4
def getRandomList():
# 4 - shuffle, 5 - key, 15 - daily, 20 - double
if random.random() <= 1/3:
mainList = [3,4,5,15,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
else:
mainList = [3,4,0,15,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
random.shuffle(mainList)
return mainList
def pickPresent(days,mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,stars,doubleFound,dailySpecials,keys,firstKey,hasKey,skipped):
pickIndex = 0
showTwoPicked = False
# If any revealed presents are available
if(len(showTwoList) > 0):
# If any of the revealed presents are of interest
if sum(showTwoList) > 0:
# If shuffle is in the list of revealed presents and you have already found the daily special (and you're not going for keys), choose shuffle.
if (dsFound and (not goForKeys or (days > 32))) and 4 in showTwoList:
pickIndex = showTwoList.index(4)
showTwoPicked = True
# If shuffle is in the list (and daily hasn't been found)
elif 4 in showTwoList:
# If *only* shuffle is in the list, pick a random present from the main list
if goForKeys and 5 not in mainList:
pickIndex = showTwoList.index(4)
showTwoPicked = True
elif sum(showTwoList) == 4:
pickIndex = random.choice(range(len(mainList)))
# If not, pick the other reward of interest :)
else:
pickIndex = showTwoList.index(sum(showTwoList)-4)
showTwoPicked = True
# If shuffle is not in the list, pick the highest priority: Double > Daily > 14 Stars > Key
else:
pickIndex = showTwoList.index(max(showTwoList))
showTwoPicked = True
# If nothing good in show 2 list, pick random from main list
else:
pickIndex = random.choice(range(len(mainList)))
# If show 2 hasn't been picked, pick a random present
else:
pickIndex = random.choice(range(len(mainList)))
# If show 2 has been picked, get chosen reward and remove it from the show 2 list
if showTwoPicked:
res = showTwoList[pickIndex]
del showTwoList[pickIndex]
del showTwoIndex[pickIndex]
# Otherwise get chosen present from main list and remove it from the list
else:
res = mainList[pickIndex]
del mainList[pickIndex]
if goForKeys and not hasKey and skipped < 14:
skipped += 1
mainList = getRandomList()
hasKey = (5 in mainList)
# If reward is "show 2", pick 2 random rewards and add them to a separate list.
elif res == 3:
showTwoIndex = random.sample(range(len(mainList)),min(2,len(mainList)))
showTwoList = [mainList[showTwoIndex[x]] for x in range(len(showTwoIndex))]
del mainList[max(showTwoIndex)]
if len(showTwoIndex) > 1:
del mainList[min(showTwoIndex)]
stars += 3*doubleFound
# If reward is "shuffle", clear lists and get a brand new main list. Add stars and reset daily found.
elif res == 4:
showTwoList = []
showTwoIndex = []
mainList = getRandomList()
hasKey = (5 in mainList)
dsFound = False
stars += 10*doubleFound
# If result is "key"
elif res == 5:
# If going for calendar, add a full key, otherwise add a fragment instead (0.2 keys)
#keys += 1 if goForKeys else 1/fragments
# If you're going for keys, and you haven't picked up keys for 32 days yet (lol, never happens for free xD), then reset
# the lists and get a new one. This simulates waiting for the next day. Increment days to keep track of how many has passed.
if goForKeys and (days <= 32):
keys += 1
days += 1
showTwoList = []
showTwoIndex = []
mainList = getRandomList()
hasKey = (5 in mainList)
dsFound = False
# If you're not going for keys, add 10 stars to stars remaining instead (in addition to the fragment above)
else:
if firstKey:
keys += 1
firstKey = False
else:
keys += 1/fragments
#stars += 10
# If double is found, add additional key fragment and stars
if doubleFound == 2:
keys += 1/fragments
#stars += 10
# If "14 Stars" is picked, add 14 stars to stars remaining
elif res == 14:
stars += 14*doubleFound
# If "daily special" is found, add it and note that daily has been found.
elif res == 15:
dailySpecials += 1*doubleFound
dsFound = True
# If "double reward" is picked, double next reward.
if res == 20:
doubleFound = 2
else: # Otherwise reset double found
doubleFound = 1
return days, mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,stars,doubleFound,dailySpecials,keys,firstKey,hasKey,skipped
# Lists to track results
keys = []
dailies = []
matches = []
gpProgress = []
# Run through "simNum" number of simulations, simulating a full "playthrough" of the event each time (with your parameters)
for x in range(simNum):
# Print status every 10% :)
if x % round(simNum/10) == 0:
print(round((x/simNum)*100),"%")
# Number of starting stars
remainingStars = startingStars
# Variables to store results for this simulation
resDS = 0
resKeys = 0
resMatches = 0
# Other variables for this simulation
double = 1
days = 0
mainList = getRandomList()
hasKey = 5 in mainList
showTwoList = []
showTwoIndex = []
dsFound = False
firstKey = True
skipped = True
while remainingStars >= 10:
remainingStars -= 10
resMatches += 1
days,mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,remainingStars,double,resDS,resKeys,firstKey,hasKey,skipped = pickPresent(days,mainList,showTwoList,showTwoIndex,dsFound,remainingStars,double,resDS,resKeys,firstKey,hasKey,skipped)
dailies.append(resDS)
keys.append(math.floor(resKeys))
matches.append(resMatches)
gp = 0
for _ in range(resMatches):
gp += random.choice([1,2])
gpProgress.append(gp)
printStats = True
if printStats:
c = np.average(matches)
dailySpecials = np.average(dailies)
avgKeys = np.average(keys)
gp = np.average(gpProgress)
kU = [k for k in keys if k < numKeys]
kO = [k for k in keys if k >= numKeys]
cU = round(100*(len(kU)/len(keys)),2)
cO = round(100*(len(kO)/len(keys)),2)
gppU = [k for k in gpProgress if k < requiredProgress]
gppO = [k for k in gpProgress if k >= requiredProgress]
if len(gppU) == 0:
gppU.append(0)
if len(gppO) == 0:
gppO.append(0)
gpU = round(100*(len(gppU)/len(gpProgress)),2)
gpO = round(100*(len(gppO)/len(gpProgress)),2)
try:
maxM = requiredProgress - min(gpProgress)
except Exception:
maxM = 999
try:
avgM = round(requiredProgress - np.average(gppU),2)
except Exception:
avgM = 999
try:
meanM = int(requiredProgress-np.median(gppU))
except Exception:
meanM = 999
print("---------")
if goForKeys:
print("Average Totals (going for Keys):")
else:
print("Average Totals (going for Dailies):")
print("Starting stars:",startingStars)
print("Stars spent:",round(c*10,2),"(x" + str(round(c*10/startingStars,3)) + ")")
print()
print("Matches:",round(c,2))
print("Stars* per Match:",round(startingStars/c,2))
print()
print("Daily Specials:",round(dailySpecials,2))
print("Stars* per Daily Special:",round(startingStars/dailySpecials,2))
print()
print("Grand Prize Progress:",round(gp,2))
print("Stars* per Grand Prize Progress:",round(startingStars/gp,2))
print("Change of getting Full Building:",str(gpO) + "%")
print("When missing progress:")
print("Maximum Missing Progress:",str(maxM))
print("Average Missing Progress:",str(avgM))
print()
print("Keys:",round(avgKeys,2))
print("Stars* per Key:",round(startingStars/avgKeys,2))
print("Chance of getting",numKeys,"keys:",str(cO) + "%")
print()
print("")
print()
print("*Starting Stars")
if showPlots:
labels = ["Keys","Dailies","Grand Prize Progress","Matches"]
results = [keys,dailies,gpProgress,matches]
fig, ax = plt.subplots(4,1,figsize=(10,21))
#fig, ax = plt.subplots(3,1,figsize=(10,15))
for i in range(4):
label = labels[i]
rmin = min(results[i])
rmax = max(results[i])
ax[i].hist(results[i],edgecolor='white', label=label, bins=range(rmin,rmax,1))
#ax.set_title(label)
if i == 0:
ax[i].axvline(x = numKeys, color = "r", label = str(numKeys) + " Required for Calendar")
if i == 2:
ax[i].axvline(x = requiredProgress, color = "r", label = "Required for Target")
ax[i].legend()
c = np.average(matches)
gppU = [k for k in gpProgress if k < requiredProgress]
gppO = [k for k in gpProgress if k >= requiredProgress]
if len(gppU) == 0:
gppU.append(0)
if len(gppO) == 0:
gppO.append(0)
gpU = round(100*(len(gppU)/len(gpProgress)),2)
gpO = round(100*(len(gppO)/len(gpProgress)),2)
try:
maxM = requiredProgress - min(gpProgress)
except Exception:
maxM = 999
try:
avgM = round(requiredProgress - np.average(gppU),2)
except Exception:
avgM = 999
try:
meanM = int(requiredProgress-np.median(gppU))
except Exception:
meanM = 999
mode = "(Daily Special Focus)" if not goForKeys else "(Keys Focus)"
fig.suptitle("Expected Grand Prize Progress w/ " + str(startingStars) + " Starting Stars " + mode + "\nActual stars spent (average): " + str(round(c*10,2)) +
" | Chance of Reaching Target: " + str(gpO) + "%\nMissing Progress (when target not reached): Max: " + str(maxM) + " | Average: " + str(avgM) + " | Median: " + str(meanM))
plt.show()
Ironrooster
Baronet
With these changes I should make the level 9 building and may even get the next 30 fragments prize as well.
Retired Guy
Marquis
- Ya now gain more Doubloons. The pirates gained more and increased the amount from Daily Quests from 10 to 30 and from the free daily reward from 10 to 25! Of course they did not forget what ya already achieved, so they will bring ya the missing ones too! Go get looking under the tiles even more.
After the change they'll be giving you extra doubloons you "missed" based on what you've already done in the event. Basically in the morning look for a whole bunch of extra doubloons in your event window if you're up to date on the questing.
So seeing as the calendar was something I was half-planning to get on live before the changes, I did some more back of the envelope math:
14 wilds, yay
10.67 "Situation 1" Days (the key is visible on the first board):
The Cost is the average cost to hit *either* a key or a shuffle
The additional lines represents the previous attempt to find a key failing because it hit a shuffle, but the new board still having a key visible. On situation 1 days I'm assuming if I hit a shuffle into a board with no key, I just give up for that day.
Expected Average Cost and Key gain on a situation 1 day is 56.7 doubloons for 0.67 keys.
Overall, situation 1 days are expected to cost ~600 doubloons for ~7 keys.
So ~11 keys to go, with ~1600 doubloons... Now the bad news, "situation 2" days. Where there is no key visible, but i gotta try to find one:
(and more rows because there's still a 2.5% chance after 20 boards that I have failed to win a key yet between only 1 in 3 boards having a key and no guarantee of winning that key when it shows - and unlike situation 1, in situation 2 I have to keep forcing it).
Overall average cost to force the win of the key of the day is ~390 doubloons for 1.02 keys (some chance you get a double-key when you finally win it for an extra 0.25 keys). So... ~4 of the remaining 11 keys can be handled with the free currency, and if I wanted to get the last 7 it'd cost about 2800! extra doubloons - about 30k diamonds worth. It seems like going for the calendar *this* way only makes sense for someone going for extra buccaneers anyways.
If you just want the skull cave though, 7 extra wild-keys are only ~2800 diamonds... Is 2800 diamonds worth it for pretty much just a skull cave given that calendar tiles tend to be worthless crap? Maybe. Food for thought. Regardless buying doubloons to try and get extra keys seems like a trap with the 1/3 boards actually having one.
14 wilds, yay
10.67 "Situation 1" Days (the key is visible on the first board):
% Tried | Cost | Keys Gained |
100.00% | 48.3 | 0.568 |
14.72% | 48.3 | 0.568 |
2.17% | 48.3 | 0.568 |
0.32% | 48.3 | 0.568 |
0.05% | 48.3 | 0.568 |
0.01% | 48.3 | 0.568 |
0.00% | 48.3 | 0.568 |
The Cost is the average cost to hit *either* a key or a shuffle
The additional lines represents the previous attempt to find a key failing because it hit a shuffle, but the new board still having a key visible. On situation 1 days I'm assuming if I hit a shuffle into a board with no key, I just give up for that day.
Expected Average Cost and Key gain on a situation 1 day is 56.7 doubloons for 0.67 keys.
Overall, situation 1 days are expected to cost ~600 doubloons for ~7 keys.
So ~11 keys to go, with ~1600 doubloons... Now the bad news, "situation 2" days. Where there is no key visible, but i gotta try to find one:
Round | % No Key | Cost | % Key | Cost | Keys | % Done |
1 | 100.00% | 65.2 | 0.00% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 0.00% |
2 | 66.67% | 65.2 | 33.33% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 0.00% |
3 | 54.26% | 65.2 | 27.13% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 18.61% |
4 | 44.16% | 65.2 | 22.08% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 33.76% |
5 | 35.94% | 65.2 | 17.97% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 46.09% |
6 | 29.25% | 65.2 | 14.63% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 56.12% |
7 | 23.81% | 65.2 | 11.90% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 64.29% |
8 | 19.38% | 65.2 | 9.69% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 70.93% |
9 | 15.77% | 65.2 | 7.89% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 76.34% |
10 | 12.84% | 65.2 | 6.42% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 80.75% |
11 | 10.45% | 65.2 | 5.22% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 84.33% |
12 | 8.50% | 65.2 | 4.25% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 87.25% |
13 | 6.92% | 65.2 | 3.46% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 89.62% |
14 | 5.63% | 65.2 | 2.82% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 91.55% |
15 | 4.58% | 65.2 | 2.29% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 93.12% |
16 | 3.73% | 65.2 | 1.87% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 94.40% |
17 | 3.04% | 65.2 | 1.52% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 95.45% |
18 | 2.47% | 65.2 | 1.24% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 96.29% |
19 | 2.01% | 65.2 | 1.01% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 96.98% |
20 | 1.64% | 65.2 | 0.82% | 48.3 | 0.568 | 97.54% |
(and more rows because there's still a 2.5% chance after 20 boards that I have failed to win a key yet between only 1 in 3 boards having a key and no guarantee of winning that key when it shows - and unlike situation 1, in situation 2 I have to keep forcing it).
Overall average cost to force the win of the key of the day is ~390 doubloons for 1.02 keys (some chance you get a double-key when you finally win it for an extra 0.25 keys). So... ~4 of the remaining 11 keys can be handled with the free currency, and if I wanted to get the last 7 it'd cost about 2800! extra doubloons - about 30k diamonds worth. It seems like going for the calendar *this* way only makes sense for someone going for extra buccaneers anyways.
If you just want the skull cave though, 7 extra wild-keys are only ~2800 diamonds... Is 2800 diamonds worth it for pretty much just a skull cave given that calendar tiles tend to be worthless crap? Maybe. Food for thought. Regardless buying doubloons to try and get extra keys seems like a trap with the 1/3 boards actually having one.
Just some information before the change goes live later today:
The image in the middle of the board has not been adjusted yet and will continue to display "1-3" for the entire beta test. Depending on the results, it will be adjusted accordingly.
The same goes for the Coins tossed after each unlocked tile: It will still have 3 coins, however only 1 or 2 can show heads. You can never have 0 or 3 heads.
The image in the middle of the board has not been adjusted yet and will continue to display "1-3" for the entire beta test. Depending on the results, it will be adjusted accordingly.
The same goes for the Coins tossed after each unlocked tile: It will still have 3 coins, however only 1 or 2 can show heads. You can never have 0 or 3 heads.
GateKeeper
Baronet
why on the seven seas would Ya make the calendar even harder lol 1 key hidden for every 3 boards !! I'm walking the plank on this event.
bring on expansion!!! need something to raise the spirits
bring on expansion!!! need something to raise the spirits
UBERhelp1
Viceroy
So seeing as the calendar was something I was half-planning to get on live before the changes, I did some more back of the envelope math:
... cut out all your great math
If you just want the skull cave though, 7 extra wild-keys are only ~2800 diamonds... Is 2800 diamonds worth it for pretty much just a skull cave given that calendar tiles tend to be worthless crap? Maybe. Food for thought. Regardless buying doubloons to try and get extra keys seems like a trap with the 1/3 boards actually having one.
With how the calendar is currently balanced, it seems really odd to me. It's near impossible to get for free, so the draw for people to spend diamonds is a portrait, a single exclusive building, and then two upgrade kits (alongside some FP and goods that are nice, but imo don't necessitate spending)? It feels like it's missing something.
The calendar still shows the governor's villa selection kit with a gold background, which is weird. I think that if the calendar got the Viceroy's Villa upgrade, it could be a lot more sensible to spend for, and would allow free to play players to get one Viceroy's Villa upgrade by spending diamonds instead of buying the event pass. For 2800 diamonds, I could definitely see many more players going for the calendar.
This is already reported. The new rewards are missing a property the Governor's Villa Selection Kit has. This causes them to not have that golden background
Well I mean the Skull Cave is crazy good efficiency wise - 1.5 FP/square, 5% att for att/square, 5% att for def/square. But is still ultimately only a single 2x2. A 4 square building that "saves" 19 squares (if you want everything it does). By comparison a Panda Shrine is a 22 square building that "saves" 40.