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This would be for the Devs to answer, so far from my 7 BP tradings, I've not gotten a BP that I just traded in. However, once you have 2 duplicates of a GB, you will also have only very few BPs missing for that specific building, and chances are high that you will get a BP that you already have. This will effectively lose you 1 BP after the trade which is not very satisfactory. Happened to me 7/7 times so far :/
I don't know if I got lucky or if there were some tweaks in 0.24.11503 - but today I had two trades in a row providing me with two missing pieces of a GB.
I have collected 24 blue prints of Zeus. But one is missing. Traded in total 7 times, but still doubles and not that one I'm missing. Don't feel like to trade anymore.
When it stays this way, than the fun is over for me. Very bad trading system in my opinion, just luck or bad luck and nothing more. And when I should use diamonds than I can set all buildings in one day. A little bit out of proportion.
It's pretty dumb; one of the greatest advantages in the game counts on pure luck. (Unless your going for specific age buildings which then hinders others' progress by a little at a time)
I agree...this sucks! I have done 4 trades now and not gained a single missing BP. With it being so hard to get BP's in the first place I think the trade option should be set so that you definitely get a BP you haven't already got. At this rate, it could be months...or even never before I get the BP's I require. Although, there is nothing else to be done with BP's so I guess I'll just have to keep wasting them on this nonsense! If I reach 10 trades with no luck I will give up methinks.
If you are missing a single BP and have no duplicates then the chance of getting the missing BP is 1-in-9; however you have an 8-in-9 chance to get a duplicate.
If you are missing a single BP and have one duplicate then the probability is that:
1-in-9 you get that missing BP;
1-in-9 you get the already duplicated BP giving you a triplicate - you can then immediately trade this in for:
A 1-in-8 chance of the missing BP (giving an overall chance of this happening as 1-in-72); or
A 7-in-8 chance of trading the triplicate for a different duplicate (giving an overall chance of this happening as 7-in-72).
7-in-9 chance of getting a second duplicate piece- you can immediately trade this in for:
A 1-in-7 chance of the missing BP (giving an overall chance of this happening as 1-in-9); or
A 6-in-7 chance of trading the two duplicated pieces for a different duplicate (giving an overall chance of this happening as 6-in-9).
So, in this case, overall you have a 17-in-72 chance of getting the missing BP and a 55-in-72 chance of not getting it.
So the average number of times required to trade BP to get the final missing piece is about 4 or 5 - however, this is only an average and may be less or may be more.