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Temple of Relics - Relics drop chance calculator

Andi47

Overlord
I prepared a table to calculate the chance of getting certain types of relics.

The table attempts to answer the following questions:
* how many relics of a certain type do you get on average when you do all encounters of the Guild Expedition?
* How many Forgepoints (goods, etc.) do you get on average when you do all encounters of the GE?

Link to the table: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IJMgYCeWRFnR340z_kJxTFzihVPkBllb9dAXAK9tu8U/edit?usp=sharing

The data for the relic drop rates based on the level of the Temple of Relics are derived from the inofficial FoE wiki (unfortunately the official one does not give any information beyond level 10 of the Temple). The item drop rates are also derived from the inofficial wiki (with sample sizes of 300 silver relics, 100 gold relics, and no data yet for jade relics).

Interesting observation:
* with increasing level of the Temple, the amount of relics per GE-encounter is increasing for all types of relics. So no matter which type of relic you are aiming for - level up your Temple!

Note: The expectation value does NOT mean that you "must" get a certain number of relics per week (when doing all 4 levels of GE) - it just means that on the long run (i.e. when playing GE for years) your observed average should be close to the expectation value, even if there are a few weeks where you don't find a relic at all.

Open questions:
* is there any official information for the item drop rates when you found a relic of a certain type? (with sample sizes far below 1000 the inofficial table probably is inaccurate - and no data is available at all for the item drop rates of Jade relics)
* in the inofficial wiki there are still quite a few levels of the temple with missing data, so I can't provide values for each level.

If you have questions or find a mistake, please post here into this thread.
 
Last edited:

xivarmy

Emperor
An interesting project :) I had a half okay sample size before the new GE prizes came out (about same size as the current one listed on wiki) but never bothered to rebuild it because even with what i had at the time i came so far off the official %s (but all official were within 95% confidence interval of observed, i'm not disputing when those official values were out that they were accurate - it just takes a huge sample to get that confidence interval particularly small :p). Overall it came out that i was extraordinarily unlucky FP wise and that it was theoretically about 50% better than my observed data.

As an example with the current data from the wiki :

The 20 FP at mean observed value of 13% for 350 samples is 95% likely to be between about 10% and 17%. That's a massive difference in the expectation values depending where it falls. to get it within a 2% confidence interval would take about 10 times as many samples!

The 100 FP at mean observed value of 16% for 100 samples is 95% likely to be between about 10% and 24%.

Because of the sample sized needed and my having to throw out all my old data, i just said screw it. Ultimately it's a less efficient FP factory to level than any of the other FP great buildings in the game and I don't need Jades on my main world, so until the other buildings are done I ignore it. Conversely on diamond mines, jades with a chance to produce fountains of knowledge are the only GB other than chateau that can increase diamond earnings and thus i'll level it whenever i can ;)