Spring Event - What's wrong with the Gold Chest

[sirblu]

I have just spent my third group of 120 lanterns on the Gold Chest and even though it says the Daily special has a 25% chance of being received I have only gotten 2 Store Kis and 1 Renovation kit. Neither of which I want and both at a much lower percentage rate. I have finished the main quest and am well into the additional quests and still cannot get the Emperor's Entrance. It is ridiculous to keep wasting these lanterns. Why are the percentages not accurate?

 

[DeletedUser5429]

You may misunderstand probabilities.
With 25% chance to get this prize:

• with one attempt, you have 25% chance to get it
• with two attempts, you have 44% chance to get it
• with three attempts, you have 58% chance to get it => and therefore 42% chance NOT to get it.
• with four attempts, you have 68% chance to get it
• with five attempts, you have 76% chance to get it

With three attempts, 42% not to get it does make your not having won it just quite normal...

 

[sirblu]

Thanks but it just seems odd that one would get a 8% and a 15% probability 50% more of the time than a 25% probability.

 

[DeletedUser7572]

Well if you expect percentages to be "accurate" after three tries, then it's not that something is wrong with the gold chest, but just with your understanding of probability.

 

[DeletedUser8088]

all you can win is a win, therefore all events are interesting.
but
did all the quests and daily collection of my town hall, I used my diamonds, and have managed to win two buildings total
in my other worlds, I will not give a diamonds to this event
the chances of winning one of the buildings is nil
if you can not obtain the full set of buildings it is a loss of space
This is clearly just to sell diamonds, shame on you
every time you try to push the limit.
you lose the fun in the game this way

 

[WykkenFenn]

the chances of winning one of the buildings is nil

How do you figure that?

 

[DeletedUser]

I have just spent my third group of 120 lanterns on the Gold Chest and even though it says the Daily special has a 25% chance of being received I have only gotten 2 Store Kis and 1 Renovation kit. Neither of which I want and both at a much lower percentage rate. I have finished the main quest and am well into the additional quests and still cannot get the Emperor's Entrance. It is ridiculous to keep wasting these lanterns. Why are the percentages not accurate?

It works the same way as rolling a dice.... you have 16.66% chance that i lands on a 6, but since its a % by chance, you could roll the dice once and get a 6, but you could also roll it a 100 times and not get a 6

 

[DeletedUser]

I have just spent my third group of 120 lanterns on the Gold Chest and even though it says the Daily special has a 25% chance of being received I have only gotten 2 Store Kis and 1 Renovation kit. Neither of which I want and both at a much lower percentage rate. I have finished the main quest and am well into the additional quests and still cannot get the Emperor's Entrance. It is ridiculous to keep wasting these lanterns. Why are the percentages not accurate?

you need 4 attempts

4 times 25% = 100%

that is one
everything less than one is zero

so with 3 attempts you got what you should get: nothing