Explain to me how attrition works in this 'new' GBG

[Keres]

Inno, could you please explain to me how your attrition formula works. How is it possible to lose 50 attrition at the start of the day for less than 100 fights, hitting only 20% sectors??? Intstead of having a 'randomised' attrition loss, which clearlhy doesn't work, why not just make it simple, i.e. if it is a 20% sector lose 1 attrition for every 5 fights, etc. Please don't tell me that attrition loss will/may even out when I am on 100 attrition already, the point is to lose attrition evenly at low and high attrition and not to lose at the rate of 1 attrition every couple of fights when at the start of the day at low attrition and then when I am at a 100 attrition to lose 1 attrition every 7/8 fights and also lose tons of troops too!!!

 

[CrashBoom]

Please don't tell me that attrition loss will/may even out

that's true
for a single player it doesn't even out

if you take a 80 men guild then they may be at 20% in one season
but there will be some with 25% and other with 15% (for a whole season)

 

[Leones]

The way this generally works is you take a random number, like between 0 and 1. Then when it is lower than, say, 0.2 in the case of 20% attrition chance, then your attrition is increased.

Made a small fiddle to demonstrate this: https://jsfiddle.net/um1d7htj/1/

If you click the button it will 'simulate' 500 battles and count how much attrition you end up with. The numbers are easily tweaked if you want to simulate more, or fewer, battles. You will notice that it's generally between 90 and 110, but you might end up at 80, 70, or even reach 140 if you're unlucky.


If you want even more info, this fiddle will perform 5 battles every second with 20% attrition chance: https://jsfiddle.net/s94ndobu/1/

You might notice that sometimes it goes up a few times in a row, sometimes there's a big gap between increases. It's all just random luck.

 

[Deleted User - 57457]

Same goes with keen eye and critical hits(Arctic orangery). Both have an X% chance to increase true inflicted damage. Sometimes you or the opposition ending up with a streak of increased damage or neither get this.

The way this generally works is you take a random number, like between 0 and 1. Then when it is lower than, say, 0.2 in the case of 20% attrition chance, then your attrition is increased.

Made a small fiddle to demonstrate this: https://jsfiddle.net/um1d7htj/1/

If you click the button it will 'simulate' 500 battles and count how much attrition you end up with. The numbers are easily tweaked if you want to simulate more, or fewer, battles. You will notice that it's generally between 90 and 110, but you might end up at 80, 70, or even reach 140 if you're unlucky.


If you want even more info, this fiddle will perform 5 battles every second with 20% attrition chance: https://jsfiddle.net/s94ndobu/1/

You might notice that sometimes it goes up a few times in a row, sometimes there's a big gap between increases. It's all just random luck.

A simulation predicting the deviation would be even more helpful. For example there's online an calculator for dice. It calculates for a given dice and a given number of rolls. The output gives the average results but also the deviation. Which is needed to get an expected range.
As you've described it can go into different extremes: lucky or unlucky. Having an expected range would give better perspective and improve expectations for attrition. After a given chance to not increase it and a given number of battles. Ofc your given simulations offer already much greater expectations over averages.

 

[Leones]

Added a nice graph: https://jsfiddle.net/5hej2ckf/

This will simulate the amount of battles you enter, with the attrition chance you enter (as a percentage). It does this 10 times a second and will record the attrition, increasing that position in the chart by 1.

I've attached an example run of 100 battles with 20% attrition chance, and as you can see the amount is generally around 20 but it is possible to get 32, or even more if you're really unlucky.

 

[Thunderdome]

@Leones

Any possibility of a graph detailing the number of battles a person might get with the following aspects:

• Target Attrition: the value we want to go up to as our max.
• Current Attrition Probability: the value of attrition probability when engaged.

 

[Leones]

@Leones

Any possibility of a graph detailing the number of battles a person might get with the following aspects:

• Target Attrition: the value we want to go up to as our max.
• Current Attrition Probability: the value of attrition probability when engaged.

Sure: https://jsfiddle.net/c15bqxj3/

This will perform battles until the desired attrition is reached, with the specified attrition chance.

 

[Zuckerberg the Horrid]

The way this generally works is you take a random number, like between 0 and 1. Then when it is lower than, say, 0.2 in the case of 20% attrition chance, then your attrition is increased.

Made a small fiddle to demonstrate this: https://jsfiddle.net/um1d7htj/1/

If you click the button it will 'simulate' 500 battles and count how much attrition you end up with. The numbers are easily tweaked if you want to simulate more, or fewer, battles. You will notice that it's generally between 90 and 110, but you might end up at 80, 70, or even reach 140 if you're unlucky.


If you want even more info, this fiddle will perform 5 battles every second with 20% attrition chance: https://jsfiddle.net/s94ndobu/1/

You might notice that sometimes it goes up a few times in a row, sometimes there's a big gap between increases. It's all just random luck.

This doesn't invalidate the suggestion that it could be made to be more accurate rather than random. It would get rid of a lot of complaints after all.

Idk why forking your fiddle isn't working for me but just change if (Math.random() < attrition) a++ to a += attrition and chart/display Math.floor(a) for the attrition reached, in game only trigger the animation on the attrition value when the previous value increases after rounding or floor.

 

[Emberguard]

Sure: https://jsfiddle.net/c15bqxj3/

This will perform battles until the desired attrition is reached, with the specified attrition chance.

View attachment 10559

Well this is interesting

Spoiler: Attrition 20%

Spoiler: Attrition 50%

 

[Thunderdome]

Well this is interesting

Spoiler: Attrition 20%

Spoiler: Attrition 50%

Indeed it is. Gives me the range number of battles I can expect for a certain target attrition in varying sector attrition environments.

 

[Markus Stormrider]

Inno, could you please explain to me how your attrition formula works. How is it possible to lose 50 attrition at the start of the day for less than 100 fights, hitting only 20% sectors??? Intstead of having a 'randomised' attrition loss, which clearlhy doesn't work, why not just make it simple, i.e. if it is a 20% sector lose 1 attrition for every 5 fights, etc. Please don't tell me that attrition loss will/may even out when I am on 100 attrition already, the point is to lose attrition evenly at low and high attrition and not to lose at the rate of 1 attrition every couple of fights when at the start of the day at low attrition and then when I am at a 100 attrition to lose 1 attrition every 7/8 fights and also lose tons of troops too!!!

your luck rating is simply too low. buy more diamonds, foe-plus, or other expensive (and/or useless) premium things, and your luck rating will increase slightly. beware though, not spending any real $$$ on the game will gradually drop your luck rating again.