It might be based off a 95% success threshold or something of that nature.Not bad to aim for 1,000 footballs, but unless I'm missing something in my calculations, it does sound rather high for anyone going exclusively for Red whenever Red is available
My calculations are 9.52 balls per yard with progress coach and always the shortest player.
This is 25% of 41/5, 25% of 48/5, 25% of 49/5, 8.3% of 60/6, 8.3% of 62/6, 8.3% of 64/6. For an average of 50.0/5.25. (Based on 1 category of player always being missing, and assuming which category is missing is equally distributed, 75% of the time there will be a 4/5 yd player, and you'll pick him ; and when there isn't there'll be a 5/6 yd player and you'll pick him then)
Which puts it at ~11429 balls required to hit 1200 yards on average. Wiki has total guaranteed free balls at 10870. So with average luck you need ~560 from incidents. But that doesn't account for bad luck.
The main bad luck impact would be seeing the 41 ball / 5 yd boosted player less as he's the only one *under* the average - if you only see him 15% of the time instead of 25% it might add a couple hundred extra balls to the total.
Edit: playing with the numbers it does come out to ~1000 balls from incidents needed if you assume you pick *all* of the shortest 6 an equal amount... but that would require you to not prefer the 41/48/49 over the 60/62/64. Or catastrophically bad luck where fully half the time there is no 4/5 yard player (as opposed to 25% of the time)
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