Not A Bug: Wrong probabilities for todays price cider mill

[DeletedUser10244]

Hi,
I tried on 17.08.2019 to get a cider mill todays price by baking various recipes,
after over 60 used ingredients I finally got the cider mill
I mostly used 1 ingredient recipes.

I think there are some probabilities not working correctly.
Probability to not get this in 60 tries with 7% chance (estimated) is 1%

Regards,
Aerendil

 

[DeletedUser10047]

By your own math, 1 person out of 100 should encounter the ill fortune that has beset you. That's still quite a few people who will have the same result you had.

On the other hand, I managed to snag 6 Cider Mills with about 35 to 40 recipes. I consider myself well fortunate.

 

[Amy Steele]

Hi Aerendil, thanks for your report. This is not a bug, for the following reason:

While the chance of getting the Cider Mill was around 7% on the 1 ingredient recipes, each attempt was 'discrete', that is, the result of the previous attempt does not affect the current one, it's still 7% or 8% or whatever percentage chance.

For example consider a coin toss. The chance of either heads or tails is 50%, therefore you can expect on average to get a head one in every two tosses. However, it's also possible to get 10 tails in a row, or 100, or even 1000. The more goes you have, the closer to 50% the average should be, but it's never possible to say that because you got a tail this time, you will get a head next time, or indeed that because you got a tail this time, the chance of getting a head next time is better than 50/50.

You were unlucky that it took so many attempts to get a Cider Mill, but lucky in that you eventually did get one. I wish you better luck with the rest of the event

 

[DeletedUser10244]

.

 

[DeletedUser10244]

Hi Amy,
thanks for the answer. No need to explain statistics to me, got a master degree in mathematics.
Based on my values Qui-Square test says you have an error with 99% probability, so I posted.
Regards, Aerendil