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Feedback Winter Event 2022
- Thread starter Juber
- Start date
Kronan
Viceroy
I respectfully disagree with your "dissappointing" assertion on the 2 main building choices. Finally - This is a very intellectual exercise to decide which is correct for your game philosophy of economics and war. For me, it's a very easy decision, and I like the "radical" (stop you in your tracks...) design bifurcation and choice offered. It's calling out 2 distinct paths to take, and there is enlightenment in both (but more enlightenment in 1 of the 2...hehehe).
Inno should NOT homogenize the choices. Leave them as them are - it's perfect, or if anything make them MORE distinct as choices, vs less.
Remember: When all you have is a hammer in your toolbox, everything looks like a nail.
Attack isn't the only way to win a war battle.
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Astrid
Baronet
I get the point and I agree that it's a bit more interesting this way. However I find them not balanced. I think that 8 more forge points is so much better than some extra goods. For me the second one is the best one by far, in all my cities use the building that gives more forge points and more defence for attacking army, because attack for attacking army is more easy to obtain.
Actually for once they come out almost the same if you value everything according to the "best" building that makes it. The FP does outweigh the goods by a little, but the Attack outweighs the defense as well (you'd rather take the attack and get the defense from some sentinel outposts).
As a standalone building, neither is amazing - but the ability to produce extra 2x2s that themself are pretty decent does make it intriguing (at a rate of ~5 a year if 200 fragments is the right amount once fixed). I don't think this is the best endgame option, but it's a damn good midgame option.
Edit: It appears Juber's stats also show more than the building in game provides - so if it's a bug that the extra FP & goods when motivated aren't shown, it does get better.
LordVaderIII
Marquis
I see that the event building upgrades have been added to the diamond prize track. This is a great idea and should get more people to purchase the premium track but they are too far back! For anyone who only wants one of the buildings they won't need them.
It looks deliberately like a discount for people going for building #2+. You finish the first one at either
Various edits to fix math.
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Iggy the Troll
Steward
I think you get a complete building at 300. I've counted it three times, trying to find where you see the extra 40.
You are correct - I counted 12 levels instead of 11. So it's 220/300 instead (with/without calendar). And 2nd would be done at 660, but can be done at 580 instead.
From memory (may not be 100% accurate) : First special for a day on average will cost ~60-70 stars including refunds and chance of accidentally getting 2 and stuff. Repeat specials on a day will cost ~110 since you have to seek out the shuffle before you can try again.
But this is one of the events with really high variance - it's not unheard of to spend a few hundred without getting a special.
Last year was quite easy. This year might be tight. But haven't figured out star totals yet to know how tight. 300 lights (no calendar) will take 1500 stars total or ~1275 "new" stars on average (accounting for getting some stars back from game tiles). If we were at last year's star total this would make it dependent on incidents (but quite likely).
But I missed seeing what the daily connection stars were when I logged in today (will check in a few hours). And haven't seen what the quests jump to after the rushes are done yet.
As usual, the Calendar is completely impossible to complete. It's not required so not a big deal, but I don't understand why it hasn't been reworked or simply removed when it's so impossible to complete it. Last year I made a simulator to simulate the minigame, so I dusted it off and updated it a bit, the numbers in this post are based on that.
You can get 1.8 key fragments (on average) per day from daily challenges, times 32 = 57.6 key fragments, or a bit over 11 full keys. That means you need another 21 keys from the minigame.
Last year we got 1160 stars, this year it seems like we get 65 less from milestones, so let's assume 1095 stars for free (+ whatever you get from incidents, not included here). Using the simulator and focusing on getting keys (stopping each day after finding the key), you'll get an average of 11.83 keys, let's call it 12 keys, or just over 90 stars per key. Let's set aside the fact that this is a terrible strategy for both daily specials and grand prizes. You can't spend stars for the dailies you want, and you get less stars back because you don't get shuffle as often (166 stars less according to my simulator, or around 33 less progress towards grand prizes).
So, you can get 12 keys on average, only a bit over half of what's required. According to my simulator you have a 0.12% chance of getting 21 keys. So I suppose it's technically possible, but definitely not likely to say the least xD
If we bump that up to 1500 stars, you'll get 16.27 keys on average, still only an 8.71% chance of getting 21 keys.
Even doubling the amount of stars does not guarantee completing it. With 2190 stars you'll get 23.86 keys on average, though if you're unlucky you can still end up below 21, there's an 18.65% chance of that according to my simulator.
So as was the case the last couple of years, the chance of getting keys is way too low. I haven't thought too much about it, but here's one possible solution:
1) Add 1 more key on the board, for 2 total. I think regular price + key from a present would be nice, if not remove a crap reward and replace with a key.
2) Lower key fragment requirement to 2
3) Change daily challenge reward to 1 fragment
This way you can get 16 keys from daily challenges, so you need an additional 16 from the minigame. Using my simulator with 2 keys per board, if you spend everything on one day you will get 10.5 keys from the minigame, if you go for the key each day you will get 20.5. In other words, very hard to complete calendar if you play daily, but quite easy if you go for key every day. This means that in order to complete the calendar you have to play a bit between these extremes, which I think is appropriate. It's how it works in the Archaeology/Halloween events.
You can get 1.8 key fragments (on average) per day from daily challenges, times 32 = 57.6 key fragments, or a bit over 11 full keys. That means you need another 21 keys from the minigame.
Last year we got 1160 stars, this year it seems like we get 65 less from milestones, so let's assume 1095 stars for free (+ whatever you get from incidents, not included here). Using the simulator and focusing on getting keys (stopping each day after finding the key), you'll get an average of 11.83 keys, let's call it 12 keys, or just over 90 stars per key. Let's set aside the fact that this is a terrible strategy for both daily specials and grand prizes. You can't spend stars for the dailies you want, and you get less stars back because you don't get shuffle as often (166 stars less according to my simulator, or around 33 less progress towards grand prizes).
So, you can get 12 keys on average, only a bit over half of what's required. According to my simulator you have a 0.12% chance of getting 21 keys. So I suppose it's technically possible, but definitely not likely to say the least xD
If we bump that up to 1500 stars, you'll get 16.27 keys on average, still only an 8.71% chance of getting 21 keys.
Even doubling the amount of stars does not guarantee completing it. With 2190 stars you'll get 23.86 keys on average, though if you're unlucky you can still end up below 21, there's an 18.65% chance of that according to my simulator.
So as was the case the last couple of years, the chance of getting keys is way too low. I haven't thought too much about it, but here's one possible solution:
1) Add 1 more key on the board, for 2 total. I think regular price + key from a present would be nice, if not remove a crap reward and replace with a key.
2) Lower key fragment requirement to 2
3) Change daily challenge reward to 1 fragment
This way you can get 16 keys from daily challenges, so you need an additional 16 from the minigame. Using my simulator with 2 keys per board, if you spend everything on one day you will get 10.5 keys from the minigame, if you go for the key each day you will get 20.5. In other words, very hard to complete calendar if you play daily, but quite easy if you go for key every day. This means that in order to complete the calendar you have to play a bit between these extremes, which I think is appropriate. It's how it works in the Archaeology/Halloween events.
How the simulator works: 1) generate a random "board", 2) pick rewards from the board until the shuffle is picked, each time spending 10 stars and possibly gaining some stars if those rewards are picked, 3) generate new board when "shuffle" is picked, or when a key is found to simulate waiting for a new day, 4) when all stars are spent, the game is over, and results are added to a list. This is then repeated for [simNum] "players", with [startingStars] stars each.
Code:
import random
import math
import numpy as np
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
# Number of stars you start off with
startingStars = 1095
# If True, simulate stopping after finding each daily key. If False, spend all the same day.
goForKeys = False
# Number of keys required for calendar (you can get ~11 for free from daily challenges)
numKeys = 21
# Number of Simulations
simNum = 100000
# Show plots
showPlots = True
# Don't change anything below here (unless you know what you're doing)
######################################################################
fragments = 5
def getRandomList():
# 4 - shuffle, 5 - key, 15 - daily, 20 - double
l = [3,14,4,5,15,20,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
random.shuffle(l)
return l
def pickPresent(days,l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k):
i = 0
t = False
if(len(l2) > 0):
if sum(l2) > 0:
if (dsFound and (not goForKeys or (days > 32))) and 4 in l2:
i = l2.index(4)
t = True
elif 4 in l2:
if sum(l2) == 4:
try:
i = random.choice(range(len(l)))
except:
print(days,l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k)
exit()
else:
i = l2.index(sum(l2)-4)
t = True
else:
i = l2.index(max(l2))
t = True
else:
i = random.choice(range(len(l)))
else:
i = random.choice(range(len(l)))
if t:
res = l2[i]
del l2[i]
del i2[i]
else:
res = l[i]
del l[i]
if res == 0:
# nothing
#print(0)
d = 1
elif res == 3:
i2 = random.sample(range(len(l)),min(2,len(l)))
l2 = [l[i2[x]] for x in range(len(i2))]
del l[max(i2)]
if len(i2) > 1:
del l[min(i2)]
s += 3*d
#print(3*d,"stars + show 2:",l2)
elif res == 4:
l2 = []
i2 = []
l = getRandomList()
dsFound = False
s += 10*d
#print(10*d,"stars + shuffle:",l)
return days, l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k
elif res == 5:
k += 1 if goForKeys else 1/fragments
if d == 2:
k += 1/fragments
s += 10
if goForKeys and (days <= 32):
days += 1
l2 = []
i2 = []
l = getRandomList()
dsFound = False
else:
s += 10
#print(d,"key(s) +",d*10,"stars")
elif res == 14:
s += 14*d
#print(d*14,"stars")
elif res == 15:
ds += 1*d
dsFound = True
#print(d,"Daily Special(s)")
elif res == 20:
d = 2
#print("Double")
if res == 20:
d = 2
else:
d = 1
return days, l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k
keys = []
dailies = []
candles = []
gpProgress = []
for x in range(simNum):
if x % round(simNum/10) == 0:
print(round((x/simNum)*100),"%")
starting = startingStars
s = starting
ds = 0
k = 0 if goForKeys else 1
l = getRandomList()
l2 = []
i2 = []
dsFound = False
d = 1
c = 0
days = 0
while s >= 10:
s -= 10
c += 1
days,l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k = pickPresent(days,l,l2,i2,dsFound,s,d,ds,k)
dailies.append(ds)
keys.append(math.floor(k))
candles.append(c)
gp = 0
for i in range(c):
gp += random.choice([1,2,3])
gpProgress.append(gp)
if showPlots:
labels = ["Keys","Dailies","Grand Prize Progress"]
results = [keys,dailies,gpProgress]
fig, ax = plt.subplots(3,1,figsize=(10,15))
for i in range(3):
label = labels[i]
rmin = min(results[i])
rmax = max(results[i])
ax[i].hist(results[i],edgecolor='white', label=label, bins=range(rmin,rmax,1))
ax[i].set_title(label)
ax[i].legend()
#bin_centers = np.diff(bins)*0.5 + bins[:-1]
#n = 0
#for fr, x, patch in zip(freq, bin_centers, patches):
# height = (freq[n]/len(results))
# plt.annotate("{}".format(height),
# xy = (x, height*len(results)), # top left corner of the histogram bar
# xytext = (0,0.2), # offsetting label position above its bar
# textcoords = "offset points", # Offset (in points) from the *xy* value
# ha = 'center', va = 'bottom'
# )
# n = n+1
#plt.legend()
plt.show()
# For last game
printStats = True
if printStats:
c = np.average(candles)
ds = np.average(dailies)
k = np.average(keys)
gp = np.average(gpProgress)
kU = [k for k in keys if k < numKeys]
kO = [k for k in keys if k >= numKeys]
cU = round(100*(len(kU)/len(keys)),2)
cO = round(100*(len(kO)/len(keys)),2)
print("---------")
if goForKeys:
print("Average Totals (going for Keys):")
else:
print("Average Totals (going for Dailies):")
print("Starting stars:",startingStars)
print("Stars spent:",round(c*10,2),"(x" + str(round(c*10/startingStars,3)) + ")")
#print("Stars Multiplication Factor: x" + str(round(c*10/startingStars,3)),"( 10 ->",str(round(c*100/startingStars,2)) + ")")
print()
print("Matches:",round(c,2))
print("Stars* per Match:",round(startingStars/c,2))
print()
print("Daily Specials:",round(ds,2))
print("Stars* per Daily Special:",round(startingStars/ds,2))
print()
print("Grand Prize Progress:",round(gp,2))
print("Stars* per Grand Prize Progress:",round(startingStars/gp,2))
print()
print("Keys:",round(k,2))
print("Stars* per Key:",round(startingStars/k,2))
print("Chance of getting",numKeys,"keys:",str(cO) + "%")
print("")
print()
print("*Starting Stars")
Last edited:
Math part 2 
Assuming 1095 stars (see last post), you will get around 1500 to spend on average if you spend all on the same day according to my simulator, getting back 0.37 stars per star you spend.
That's 150*2 = 300 progress for grand price, though there is some variation due to the random nature of lighting between 1 and 3 candles with each match.
But if we add some stars from incidents into the mix, even as low as 200 stars from incidents (6-7 stars per day) will more or less guarantee 300 progress:
So I think getting to 300 should be fairly simple, depending on how much you get from incidents. So I think balancing is quite alright, assuming 1095 is correct.
Assuming 1095 stars (see last post), you will get around 1500 to spend on average if you spend all on the same day according to my simulator, getting back 0.37 stars per star you spend.
That's 150*2 = 300 progress for grand price, though there is some variation due to the random nature of lighting between 1 and 3 candles with each match.
But if we add some stars from incidents into the mix, even as low as 200 stars from incidents (6-7 stars per day) will more or less guarantee 300 progress:
So I think getting to 300 should be fairly simple, depending on how much you get from incidents. So I think balancing is quite alright, assuming 1095 is correct.
Kronan
Viceroy
So let's simplify this: The sheer complexity of exceeding "average" this and average "that", and mandatory daily challenges playing with little flexibility to the overall event stategy by missing a day or saying "damn...it's too exhasuting to do 80, 5 minutes productions runs.., I'll take a pass on today's DC...", missing or not getting incidents, etc. leads me to belief that the "swift knife that cuts through all this is"...
guess I'm a day late, and a few upgrades short - I'll have buy the damn thing...or buy what you can't achieve (last or 2 last upgrades)...
If you're keeping score, it summarizes to this:
Winter Event 2022 goal achievement: Inno 1, players .9
Let's see how many people tell us they made it the entire way, with no diamond expense. Not that it's a barometer, but the paradigm continues to shift by adding complexity and more decision trees on what to do and how to do it in the event itself.
guess I'm a day late, and a few upgrades short - I'll have buy the damn thing...or buy what you can't achieve (last or 2 last upgrades)...
If you're keeping score, it summarizes to this:
Winter Event 2022 goal achievement: Inno 1, players .9
Let's see how many people tell us they made it the entire way, with no diamond expense. Not that it's a barometer, but the paradigm continues to shift by adding complexity and more decision trees on what to do and how to do it in the event itself.
The daily challenges aren't required, you get key fragments from them but because the calendar is impossible anyways you can just ignore them.
Getting the main building fully leveled should be very easy, you might get it from the event quests / daily login rewards, or you might be missing some, which should be very easy to get from incidents.
Getting the main building fully leveled should be very easy, you might get it from the event quests / daily login rewards, or you might be missing some, which should be very easy to get from incidents.