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Feedback Soccer Event 2022

Thunderdome

Thunderdome

Emperor
Just4FoEbeta said:
85% chance to win $1 or 15% chance to win $1,000,000... would you still go for the 85% bet as it has the highest chance of winning?
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I am better off in winning that $1 (given at the chance of 85%) than foolishly sit and hope to win the $1,000,000 (given at the chance of 15%). Okay, let's put this into a finer perspective.

You played three hard matches and lost all 3 thinking you would have won at 15%. I played three medium matches and won all three of them at 75% or greater chance. Points for the hard matches are 430 (an example per se) each ticket spent while medium matches are 240 (again an example). In your time, you gained 0 points (no points or rewards are given for a loss), and I take off with 720 points (with some rewards). So, care to tell me again on how a 15% chance at anything (whether winning or losing) is relevant to something bearing at least more than 75% chance of winning. Even draws got to happen at some percent range (maybe 50-65% for an example).

In better layman's terms, I would ask you "what in the flip are you going for the harder matches knowing they are way out of your league as shown and wasting your tickets anyways?"

You can go on thinking that 15% will give you something favorable, but for me, and Inno's way of doing things, it's like "dream on, compadre".

@beelzebob666 thought it was blue beating red, green beating blue, and red beating green. Your team's on the bottom. So it should have been blue blue red red green green for that round.
Daynos de Nory said:
The strategy for this event is: "Get more tickets than other players". If you can't find them, buy them! :D
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Yep, that's pretty much what will happen. They will be scrambling.
 

Herr Voxner

Merchant
Appreciated the simplified and very logical tournament approach. Thank you!

Tournament daily special seemed very low win rate to me (for example I got lucky and found an incident with 10 tournament tickets+3 regular tickets). Out of the 13 tickets, I won all and received zero daily. I noticed low percentage win of daily on other days too. Please increase tournament win rate of daily.
 
.Chris

.Chris

Baronet
Thunderdome said:
I am better off in winning that $1 (given at the chance of 85%) than foolishly sit and hope to win the $1,000,000 (given at the chance of 15%). Okay, let's put this into a finer perspective.

You played three hard matches and lost all 3 thinking you would have won at 15%. I played three medium matches and won all three of them at 75% or greater chance. Points for the hard matches are 430 (an example per se) each ticket spent while medium matches are 240 (again an example). In your time, you gained 0 points (no points or rewards are given for a loss), and I take off with 720 points (with some rewards). So, care to tell me again on how a 15% chance at anything (whether winning or losing) is relevant to something bearing at least more than 75% chance of winning. Even draws got to happen at some percent range (maybe 50-65% for an example).

In better layman's terms, I would ask you "what in the flip are you going for the harder matches knowing they are way out of your league as shown and wasting your tickets anyways?"

You can go on thinking that 15% will give you something favorable, but for me, and Inno's way of doing things, it's like "dream on, compadre".

@beelzebob666 thought it was blue beating red, green beating blue, and red beating green. Your team's on the bottom. So it should have been blue blue red red green green for that round.

Yep, that's pretty much what will happen. They will be scrambling.
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Stochastic is a b%$&h :)

The crucial factor to consider is the number of attempts you get.
At 100 attempts you would expect to win
1$ - 85/100 times -> 85$
1,000,000 $ - 15/100 times -> 15,000,000
so even if you only win once, your reward is bigger than winning every time in the 1$ scenario.

BUT

A win is not guaranteed in either scenario since the probabilities are 85% and 15% respectively for each attempt and their outcomes do not depend on previous attempts.
This is known as the gambler's fallacy.

In our specific case the number of tickets is fairly limited and the difference between the winnings is not 100x higher for the hard opponents, therefore the approach of going for the middle opponents will likely yield more overall benefits (especially with the new system).
 
Thunderdome

Thunderdome

Emperor
.Chris said:
In our specific case the number of tickets is fairly limited and the difference between the winnings is not 100x higher for the hard opponents, therefore the approach of going for the middle opponents will likely yield more overall benefits (especially with the new system)
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Exactly, the point I was trying to prove. If it shows I am going to win, I will therefore take the chance, and reap the rewards. If it shows I am going to lose, I would steer clear from it. If it shows a draw, well, that's on me if I want to take half the winnings or try on a better case scenario.

I know people are trying to make me understand by a number of tries, but I always think of such like this:

If I speed (hitting the pedal to 100+ MPH), there's an 85% chance I would wind up in an accident and 15% chance I would not. I take that challenge and speed anyways that I sometimes get away in the 15% area. Yeah, that 85% chance of it happens just lingers each time I speed. But, my young Mario Andretti days are over as I use that 85% should that temptation come back (and that's if my other half doesn't kill me, lol).
 

zookeepers

Marquis
Talking about 85% chance vs 15% chance...

When you have 10 tickets left, and collecting gold-nuggets to get the final upgrade kit for the event main prize.
Using each ticket, you either get 1 gold-nugget for 85% or 7 nuggets for 15%, and you need 7 more nuggets to achieve.

Looking at the expectation value, 0.85 vs 1.05, 15% is the better, but you have approx 20% losing 10 times in a row if you chose it,
In contrast, you only have about 5% chance of getting 6 or less nuggets if you chose 85% 10 times.
So, in this case, 85% is the better choice even though the expectation is the worse.

From the same situation, if you lost 85% chance 3 times in a row (0.34%; what a bad luck!), you would have 7 tickets left,
and you still need 7 more nuggets to complete your prize building.
If you go for 85%, you would have 32% chance of 7 straight wins, but this time, that is not a better option.
If you chose 15% 7 times, you would win at least 1 time with a chance of 68%, and so 15% would be the better.

The expectation value of each option is always the same,
but whether 85% is good or 15% is good differs by situations.
 

planetofthehumans2

Emperor
I'd just like to add that I really appreciate the work that was put into the announcement to explain everything and list all the rewards including achievements and portraits which I never considered before.
 

Quoras

Merchant
I think they did a good job changing the event mechanic. I played the event last year and it was a very unpleasent experience. The Problem was that no matter what you did, you could rarely get over 50% in the hard matches. Even if you shouffled around your players (you just had to because the ai choosing players resulted in even worse games at like 20-30 win rate). It is sad now that it is without taktic, but i think that this much better than having to shuffle trough all your players to see if it is better to use counters or higher lvl. It was just unrewarding for the low win rate and demoralzing
 

Deleted User - 176357

Guest
Good evening, last year, I arrived at the gold cup by only making the difficult matches, I changed a few players to put more efficient ones and I won my matches, but this year I found myself at the 1st level of the cup because impossible to win a difficult match, at the beginning I continued to try my luck from time to time but always impossible to win one, then I always made the average matches and I always won without even looking at my players, game interest 00

really too bad this year this vent !!
 
beelzebob666

beelzebob666

Overlord
Pathfinder
Spoiler Poster
chrisi3210 said:
Does someone have the league results? That's deletet in the fandom wiki. :(
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Why do you care?
Also, if it ever was in fandom you could try to check older page versions...

Ps: just checked - there never were league results on fandom for this year's soccer
 

6zeva9

Baronet
chrisi3210 said:
Does someone have the league results? That's deletet in the fandom wiki. :(
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From what I have seen is they only ever show it on a Beta page and then say that it is a reflection of the Beta site and should not be taken as to what you would need on your live server.
 
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