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Feedback New Settlement: Pirates

Not enthralled by it, on my screen it is quite dark & dingy, I started late because I was in the middle of another
settlement when this came, I've only got 9 days until the first prize box opens and haven't made a lot of
progress, I haven't used any diamonds on it, don't know whether that would that would make a difference
but as we didn't receive any from Inno to test this I'm not spending my own.
I won't be doing it again I think the prizes don't warrant the time spent on it, advertised as exciting but I
don't find it so, just a poor rehash of what we've had before, the only good bit was the dice game
 
Ok, last quest is 1200 diplomacy AND 12k doubloons AND 10 of each good.
Seems like the two type of requiirement was too few so now we have 3.

This settlement doesn't have any of the following in the rewards (present in all previous settlement): Finish All Supply Production, Mass Self Aid kit, Renovation Kit.

The remove impedment are the lest of all settlement (3) and the latest of all.
The only comparable settlement are Viking (3) and Japan (2), but those have expansion with no impediment, while pirate as an impediment in each expansion we can chose.

The remove impediment are later then Viking and more difficult to reach slowing progress even more:
  1. The first remove impediment is at the second good building (build 1 spice market), in Viking it is the first production building shrine.
  2. The second remove impediment is when collecting goods from third good building (get 20 rum), in viking it was the same, but there was a diplomacy alternative.
  3. The third remove impediment is when building tier 3 house (build 1 barraks), while in viking it was when building the 4th and last good building wool farm.
 
I find I'm getting lucky on the dice game, I've played poker dice a lot in RL, quite a bit better than I would expect but don't
we all know that is the way with all things Inno, the luck will gradually get nerfed
I think inno peaks its "careness" while we're testing. So the biggest chance of change will be soon before the live release. Once it hits live, the amount of inno "careness" decreases rapidly. If there's no update in a couple weeks (unlikely), it's not going to get updated at all unless there's a big settlesments update.
 
- Mostly you're going for 3-4-5 of a kind ; so you're on the right track. If you do hit a full house, best is to bail out and accept it but more of a kind is the hope. (EV is actually pretty close to the same if you roll full house on first roll to keep it or try twice for 4 of a kind and risk only getting 3 of a kind).
- If you've got 2-3-4-5 plus a pair on the first roll it's a good play to keep it and try for 1 or 6 (2 tries at 1/3 is ~44% you wind up ending on 2-3-4-5 for slightly worse than 3 of a kind, and ~56% you get 9 which is better than a full house but not as good as a 4-of-a-kind you're unlikely to get after starting with at most a pair)
- The worst possible first roll is 1-2-4-5-6 or 1-2-3-5-6. It's slightly better here to keep the 3 or 4 - still hoping for a 3+ of a kind primarily but for sets the odds are no worse keeping 1 die than keeping none; and 3 and 4 are also part of every straight.
- Never keep an inside straight draw (i.e. 1-2-4-5). The odds are too long compared to just rerolling and the floor is too low (runt or a pair).

Murky decisions:

- I haven't run the numbers yet on keeping a pair vs keeping 1-2-3-4 or 3-4-5-6. Your chances of rolling a 2 or 5 for the high straight are low, same as the inside straight, but you have a floor of a low straight when you fail (as opposed to a runt or 1 pair).
- Keeping 2 pair vs keeping 1 pair is also close - 2 pair has the safer floor and a decent chance for a full house (1/3 on each roll). 1 pair has the higher ceiling (4 of a kind will happen sometimes) and a 42% chance on each roll to hit at least 3 of a kind.

Correcting and updating this:

- It's generally better to throw away the full house if you have a free reroll and reroll with 3 of a kind. (36 ways to reroll 2 dice; 1 gets you 5 of a kind, 10 get you 4 of a kind, 5 get you back to a full house, 20 leave you with only 3 of a kind; 1/36*15 + 10/36*12 + 5/36*7 + 20/36 * 5 = 7.5 instead of 7). This amplifies further if you still have 2 free rolls (9.1 instead of 7). I must've been oversimplifying the math in my previous back of the envelope calculation (neglecting some of the chance to get back to full house or hit 5 of a kind maybe).
- 1234 or 3456 are worth keeping over a pair if you only have 1 reroll (4.83 vs 4.40-4.48). if you have 2 rerolls it's better to keep the pair (5.53 vs 6.20-6.25).
- Rerolling with 1 Pair is always better than 2 Pair. Slightly if 1 reroll left (4.40-4.48 for the pair vs 4.33 for 2 pair). Significantly if 2 rerolls left (6.20-6.25 vs 5.53).

The ranges for one pair are based on what pair you're keeping. 1 Pair of 3s or 4s is very slightly better by turning more still-one-pairs into low straights than pairs of 1/2/5/6s.
 
Correcting and updating this:

- It's generally better to throw away the full house if you have a free reroll and reroll with 3 of a kind. (36 ways to reroll 2 dice; 1 gets you 5 of a kind, 10 get you 4 of a kind, 5 get you back to a full house, 20 leave you with only 3 of a kind; 1/36*15 + 10/36*12 + 5/36*7 + 20/36 * 5 = 7.5 instead of 7). This amplifies further if you still have 2 free rolls (9.1 instead of 7). I must've been oversimplifying the math in my previous back of the envelope calculation (neglecting some of the chance to get back to full house or hit 5 of a kind maybe).
- 1234 or 3456 are worth keeping over a pair if you only have 1 reroll (4.83 vs 4.40-4.48). if you have 2 rerolls it's better to keep the pair (5.53 vs 6.20-6.25).
- Rerolling with 1 Pair is always better than 2 Pair. Slightly if 1 reroll left (4.40-4.48 for the pair vs 4.33 for 2 pair). Significantly if 2 rerolls left (6.20-6.25 vs 5.53).

The ranges for one pair are based on what pair you're keeping. 1 Pair of 3s or 4s is very slightly better by turning more still-one-pairs into low straights than pairs of 1/2/5/6s.
If you have two pairs, which pair do you pick? ;) I've been picking up on these strats as I've been playing the minigame.
 
wish they would have added the x4 chance to the dice game as well, as most (all?) other settlement mini-games have too.

Only Japan and Egypt have x4 applied to their minigame. It was hugely powerful in Egypt being quadratic - on the repeated run, 75% more loot from fights, 75% more goods from loot = triple the goods from fights, so I think that scared them off of allowing it in future settlements.

Which pushes it the other way, that the minigame becomes less important in later runs in Aztecs and Pirates when it wouldn't be out of control in them at all to gain the x4 bonus.
 
Only Japan and Egypt have x4 applied to their minigame. It was hugely powerful in Egypt being quadratic - on the repeated run, 75% more loot from fights, 75% more goods from loot = triple the goods from fights, so I think that scared them off of allowing it in future settlements.

Which pushes it the other way, that the minigame becomes less important in later runs in Aztecs and Pirates when it wouldn't be out of control in them at all to gain the x4 bonus.
Mughal too has the 4x.
But Mughal has an amount that increases with progress. The other settlement type don't have any progress like that.
 
I have a hard time considering the set bonus from mughals as a minigame. But fair enough.
Not a mini-game but an extra good production on top of what you get from good building. So functionally the same.

BTW I think a bigger issue is the comparison with other settlements and expansion cost:
  • Japan (4x possible): amount is 11-15 in 3 negotiation. Amount is random, but even without using diamonds you can get the full amount by just trying again and using more goods. So on average enough for 3 expansion per day (at least until we run out of the 8 goods expansion). Affected by randomness based on which goods we get.
  • Aztec (no 4x): amount is 9-12. Click allowed is one more that the goods available. In my experience I can get in most cases about 3 less than the max. There is an option to double by using diamonds, but the cost is the same of using diamond for missing goods so this point is moot. Each of the 3 slot of mini-game is not enough on average for one expansion (10 cheapest). Even if the mini-game has 12 goods, on average I get 9. But this might be just me, but if the goods are just 9-10 then it's not even a case of luck, it's just impossible/extremely unlikely.
  • Mughal (4x available): 5 - 15 - 40 goods depending on which production building are unlocked and build. Expansion cost 5, so with a little luck an expansion from most collection one the first production building is available, but that is a few days after the start of each settlement, the latest of all types.
  • Pirate (no 4x) each slot of the mini-game can produce between 1 and 15 goods, but in most cases (not the average( it's around 5. Cheapest expansion cost 10, so on average we need 2 mini-game of the same good to buy one expansion.
 
Not a mini-game but an extra good production on top of what you get from good building. So functionally the same.

BTW I think a bigger issue is the comparison with other settlements and expansion cost:
  • Japan (4x possible): amount is 11-15 in 3 negotiation. Amount is random, but even without using diamonds you can get the full amount by just trying again and using more goods. So on average enough for 3 expansion per day (at least until we run out of the 8 goods expansion). Affected by randomness based on which goods we get.
  • Aztec (no 4x): amount is 9-12. Click allowed is one more that the goods available. In my experience I can get in most cases about 3 less than the max. There is an option to double by using diamonds, but the cost is the same of using diamond for missing goods so this point is moot. Each of the 3 slot of mini-game is not enough on average for one expansion (10 cheapest). Even if the mini-game has 12 goods, on average I get 9. But this might be just me, but if the goods are just 9-10 then it's not even a case of luck, it's just impossible/extremely unlikely.
  • Mughal (4x available): 5 - 15 - 40 goods depending on which production building are unlocked and build. Expansion cost 5, so with a little luck an expansion from most collection one the first production building is available, but that is a few days after the start of each settlement, the latest of all types.
  • Pirate (no 4x) each slot of the mini-game can produce between 1 and 15 goods, but in most cases (not the average( it's around 5. Cheapest expansion cost 10, so on average we need 2 mini-game of the same good to buy one expansion.
It's a classic over-reaction. In Japan it's really powerful if you get lucky - you can get full-8 expansions from one lucky x4 hit on instruments and a bit of earlier goods; and still powerful if you don't. Some of that can be attributed to the baseline, some of that can be attributed to the x4. So they took away from both come Aztecs ;) Go from 30+ goods a day that can be boosted by x4 to ~15 goods a day that can't.

Pirates more or less copied Aztecs - in both cases you *probably* have to get the same unavailable good twice to get an "extra" expansion (though pirates at least have a reasonable chance to get lucky and get it after once where aztecs would require pretty crazy luck for that, blind-hitting goods after goods or a really big reveal on your first click so that the rest can be deduced).

As for mughals:

- you have to random into a good you don't have unlocked for it to matter at all towards unlocking expansions (50% when you first get the chhatri; 25% not long after). Otherwise it's just an extra quarter of a goods building at that point. Which of course you accept, but it's not a huge impact. While it's also 50% RNG with the other minigames you get 3 tries at it. So 88% chance of getting at least one not-yet-unlocked good.
- you have to abide by the timer of your townhall as opposed to getting an immediate influx whenever you unlock it
- buildings are generally less efficient because it's meant to be a big and long settlement so 1 expansion has less relative value anyways (takes like 5 chhattris + 3 shantis to support 1 goods on 10 hr cycle = ~4.5 expansions vs 2 shintos + 2 houses to more than support 1 goods on 10 hr cycle = ~2.75 expansions)

So they were excessively cautious there too, just in other ways. Can't let people escape the feeling that settlements are a grind ;)
 
It's a classic over-reaction. In Japan it's really powerful if you get lucky - you can get full-8 expansions from one lucky x4 hit on instruments and a bit of earlier goods; and still powerful if you don't. Some of that can be attributed to the baseline, some of that can be attributed to the x4. So they took away from both come Aztecs ;) Go from 30+ goods a day that can be boosted by x4 to ~15 goods a day that can't.

Pirates more or less copied Aztecs - in both cases you *probably* have to get the same unavailable good twice to get an "extra" expansion (though pirates at least have a reasonable chance to get lucky and get it after once where aztecs would require pretty crazy luck for that, blind-hitting goods after goods or a really big reveal on your first click so that the rest can be deduced).

As for mughals:

- you have to random into a good you don't have unlocked for it to matter at all towards unlocking expansions (50% when you first get the chhatri; 25% not long after). Otherwise it's just an extra quarter of a goods building at that point. Which of course you accept, but it's not a huge impact. While it's also 50% RNG with the other minigames you get 3 tries at it. So 88% chance of getting at least one not-yet-unlocked good.
- you have to abide by the timer of your townhall as opposed to getting an immediate influx whenever you unlock it
- buildings are generally less efficient because it's meant to be a big and long settlement so 1 expansion has less relative value anyways (takes like 5 chhattris + 3 shantis to support 1 goods on 10 hr cycle = ~4.5 expansions vs 2 shintos + 2 houses to more than support 1 goods on 10 hr cycle = ~2.75 expansions)

So they were excessively cautious there too, just in other ways. Can't let people escape the feeling that settlements are a grind ;)
I agree.
The only issue I have is that the 88% chance.
The chance for Japan (if you didn't get any expansion yet when unlocking the merchant) is 88% that you get one expansion and the rest has a very small chance (based on 4x, so up to 3% on top of the 88%) that you get instead multiple expansion.
For Mughal it's 25% of the next good and 25% of an expansion that you can use later (lotus)
For Aztech it's 52% of getting a double Vegetable or Headdresses
For Pirates it's still 52% of a useful double, but a double might not be enough to get 10 goods, which is worse than Aztec.

But for Mughal the advantage is not in expansion, it's in last task completion.
The last task requires 50 of each goods, which is quite a lot. But at that point the embassy produces 40, which is almost all the good required for one of them.
Which would not be useful is we didn't know which good to expect. But on browser we can see which good to expect, so it is a huge saving at that point. Allowing about 2 goods building for each of the other goods and completion in 25 hours only for the required 200 goods (which is quite impressive actually)
 
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