Spoiler New Settlement?? Mughal Empire

[Dessire]

You made the right choice.
I gave it a try and after 2 rounds i almost quit playing FoE entirely because that sh!t pretty much forced me to be active all day with manual fighting and training units for the next fights.
Didn't touch any settlements for 4 months and now i just started again, but i'm not touching that Egyptian stuff again.

I hate fights too, specially because is more efficient focus on produce goods and forge points than focus only on attack if you want to have a very strong city that allow you progress faster than any other city. despite that, you do not need to be an expert fighter to complete egypt settlement. all you need is build 2 to 3 archers factories and unlock atleast 1 slot of each factory. archers are all you need to beat any fight, even the most difficult one of the 3 fights.
the rest of space you use it to build goods buildings

 

[derdelyi beta]

it seems like 2 players of here don't really know how to do settlements, and don't know how to build an excelent layout. I already see both players building roads to connect everything, not only houses but decorations too XD

Also, I think that both players do not know that in order to have more chance to get the X4, you need to produce goods every 4 hours instead of every 8 hours and in order to produce goods every 4 hours, you need to produce more coins than the cost of production of those goods every 4 hours. so if you have 3 buildings producing goods every 4 hours, that means 3000 coins, and for example, with aztecs, to get 3000 coins in 4 hours you need at least 8 2x2 shrines producing cacao every 1 hour to get 3200! enough to keep those good buildings producing. if you produce cacao every 4 hours, you can't keep those 3 good buildings producing goods every 4 hours! and even if you have 3 buildings, you can't finish on time with 3! you need atleast 4 as soon as possible! and have all houses without a road connection. pls!

It does not matter whether you do 4 or 8 hour productions. The expected avarage output is exactly the same in both cases: 1x8hr vs 2x4hr. Just do the math.

 

[Dessire]

It does not matter whether you do 4 or 8 hour productions. The expected avarage output is exactly the same in both cases: 1x8hr vs 2x4hr. Just do the math.

it is not about the amount of goods you get producing 4 hours or 8 hours, is the amount of time you can activate the x4. producing every 8 hours allows you have a chance to activate the X4 3 times per day (24/8 = 3) but that only happens if you put your productions at 12 pm - 8 am - 4pm . . .while producing every 4 hours you have from 12am to 8am to12pm to 4pm to 8pm to12pm. 5 times! so lets imagine that you have 20% chance. producing ever 8 hours with only one factory, , it is very probable that you'll never get the X4, but producing every 4 hours, you know that you'll have the x4 chance atleast one time per day! and do not forget that producing every 4 hours allows you produce one time an 8 hours production while you are sleeping, so if you are lucky, that chance per day could be activated for that production.

 

[MooingCat]

it is not about the amount of goods you get producing 4 hours or 8 hours, is the amount of time you can activate the x4. producing every 8 hours allows you have a chance to activate the X4 3 times per day (24/8 = 3) but that only happens if you put your productions at 12 pm - 8 am - 4pm . . .while producing every 4 hours you have from 12am to 8am to12pm to 4pm to 8pm to12pm. 5 times! so lets imagine that you have 20% chance. producing ever 8 hours with only one factory, , it is very probable that you'll never get the X4, but producing every 4 hours, you know that you'll have the x4 chance atleast one time per day! and do not forget that producing every 4 hours allows you produce one time an 8 hours production while you are sleeping, so if you are lucky, that chance per day could be activated for that production.

You get it less often with 8h, but when you do you get a lot more.

2x 4h: 2*(5 +15*b) = 10+30*b
1x 8h: 1*(10+30*b) = 10+30*b

I do agree that 4h can often be the better option, but that has more to do with timing than actual yields. For example, if you only need 20 more of a certain good, you only need one boosted 4h production, so doing that you have a higher chance of getting it earlier. But if you need like 100+ goods for the next technologies you want to unlock, it doesn't matter which option you choose.

 

[Dessire]

You get it less often with 8h, but when you do you get a lot more.

2x 4h: 2*(5 +15*b) = 10+30*b
1x 8h: 1*(10+30*b) = 10+30*b

I do agree that 4h can often be the better option, but that has more to do with timing than actual yields. For example, if you only need 20 more of a certain good, you only need one boosted 4h production, so doing that you have a higher chance of getting it earlier. But if you need like 100+ goods for the next technologies you want to unlock, it doesn't matter which option you choose.

imagine start a settlement with 2 goods buildings in aztecs. you have 2 options:
2 x 8 hours production (4000 coins) or 4 x 4 hours productions (4000 coins too), you have more chances to get X4 with 4 productions more than with 2, that means you could unlock the minigame faster, I mean, you have more chances to unlock it faster, also. you also must consider the fact that earning more times X4 allows you to unlock new buildings faster. that's why I always preffer produce every 4 hours instead of every 8 hours. and in order to produce every 4 hours you need to produce coins every 1 hour. produce every 8 hours is obviously better if you do not want to connect to the game every 1 hour but your risk to obtain the 15 parts of the mini building (2x2 one) increase due to that.


atleast for me always works, for the egypt settlement for example, only for doing that I finished the first round with 13.5 extra days. and the last 2 rounds always with 4-5 extra days. now tell me if you can finish a settlement so fast by producing every 8 hours because I only tryed it once and I finished the settlement with 2 hours left for the 15 parts. too risky!

 

[MooingCat]

imagine start a settlement with 2 goods buildings in aztecs. you have 2 options:
2 x 8 hours production (4000 coins) or 4 x 4 hours productions (4000 coins too), you have more chances to get X4 with 4 productions more than with 2, that means you could unlock the minigame faster, I mean, you have more chances to unlock it faster, also. you also must consider the fact that earning more times X4 allows you to unlock new buildings faster. that's why I always preffer produce every 4 hours instead of every 8 hours. and in order to produce every 4 hours you need to produce coins every 1 hour. produce every 8 hours is obviously better if you do not want to connect to the game every 1 hour but your risk to obtain the 15 parts of the mini building (2x2 one) increase due to that.


atleast for me always works, for the egypt settlement for example, only for doing that I finished the first round with 13.5 extra days. and the last 2 rounds always with 4-5 extra days. now tell me if you can finish a settlement so fast by producing every 8 hours because I only tryed it once and I finished the settlement with 2 hours left for the 15 parts. too risky!

As I said I agree when you only need a few goods to unlock something (like in the beginning of the settlement), but outside of that it doesn't matter. I do use a lot of 4h productions, but saying it's always best is a bit too simplistic

As for egypt, that's probably the best settlement to use 8h productions. You need a lot of goods and often unlock multiple technologies at the same time, so running 4h usually isn't necessary. Of course, in the beginning and as you get close to enough goods using 4h can be better, but I mainly use 8h productions and usually finish with 6-7 days remaining.

 

[derdelyi beta]

it is not about the amount of goods you get producing 4 hours or 8 hours, is the amount of time you can activate the x4.

imagine start a settlement with 2 goods buildings in aztecs. you have 2 options:
2 x 8 hours production (4000 coins) or 4 x 4 hours productions (4000 coins too), you have more chances to get X4 with 4 productions more than with 2, that means you could unlock the minigame faster, I mean, you have more chances to unlock it faster, also.

Please just do the math, before saying such things!
The expected output is exactly the same in both cases becasue the chane for 4x is the same in case of all productions + the 8hr production has doubled base production compared to the 4hr production (it's an importanrt detail, because it's not true for the 24hr production). In case of 4hr productions you can activate the 4x harvest 2x more times than in case of 8hr productions, BUT you will get only half of the goods!

The expected avarage output (if you have x% chance for 4x harvest):

1. 2x8 production: 2 * (10 + 30x) = 20 + 60x
2. 4x4 production: 4 * (5 + 15x) = 20 + 60x

So after 8 hours, the expexted output is ALWAYS 20+60x goods. So your reasoning is absolutely incorrect.

 

[Emberguard]

The main thing for 4 or 8 hrs is whether taking that length of time will change how many goods you produce for your time if you never get a x4. Look at when you’ll be around to pick up the goods and produce based on that, the x4 will simply take care of itself

atleast for me always works, for the egypt settlement for example, only for doing that I finished the first round with 13.5 extra days. and the last 2 rounds always with 4-5 extra days. now tell me if you can finish a settlement so fast by producing every 8 hours because I only tryed it once and I finished the settlement with 2 hours left for the 15 parts. too risky!

If you’re able to get such a good result for Egypt then it’s possible you may have improved since you originally did Vikings and Japan. Perhaps if you ever try another run of the other two or a future settlement you could attempt doing 4-8 hr productions for the coins and see if you can do the gold rewards with that? Cause clearly you don’t like doing 1 hr productions all day and I’m wondering if you’d succeed better now on 4 hr coin productions then when you last did those other settlements

 

[Tahrakaiitoo]

I finished the Egyptian main reward on one world (for my fight based diamond farm alt city), but I'm not bothering on my main world. Egypt, to me, was the single worst settlement so far.
I autobattled through it, because I hate fighting and it annoyed me every single day I played it. Never again.

 

[drakenridder]

The expected avarage output (if you have x% chance for 4x harvest):

1. 2x8 production: 2 * (10 + 30x) = 20 + 60x
2. 4x4 production: 4 * (5 + 15x) = 20 + 60x

So after 8 hours, the expexted output is ALWAYS 20+60x goods. So your reasoning is absolutely incorrect.

It's about chance calculation and expectation. Not about raw production when all of the times
you'll get the 4x bonus.

2x an chance vs 4x a chance for the bonus production. Not if both 2x 8h and all 4x 4h
productions are boosted. Since yeah than they'll produce equally amounts. I other words
he tried to explain that with 4x 4h productions you can improve the likelihood to get the
4x production boost, not improving production nor production efficiency.
Unfortunately I don't know the math behind
predicting the improved probability of getting
the production boost between 2x vs 4x. If I
knew this I could do the math and determine
which has a higher success ratio for getting
the boosted outcomes. If someone knows
the math behind this, we could find out what
truly offers the best odds: 2 chances vs 4
chances with the same win chance per attempt.

 

[aim83]

specially because is more efficient focus on produce goods and forge points than focus only on attack if you want to have a very strong city that allow you progress faster than any other city

SO wrong. Let me correct you. Either you are a visitor from a distant past, in which Guild Battlegrounds have not yet been implemented, or you're just a farmer, who don't play in GBG at all.
GBG FP income may be even more than twice as big as your fully developed city gives you.

 

[derdelyi beta]

It's about chance calculation and expectation. Not about raw production when all of the times
you'll get the 4x bonus.

2x an chance vs 4x a chance for the bonus production. Not if both 2x 8h and all 4x 4h
productions are boosted. Since yeah than they'll produce equally amounts. I other words
he tried to explain that with 4x 4h productions you can improve the likelihood to get the
4x production boost, not improving production nor production efficiency.
Unfortunately I don't know the math behind
predicting the improved probability of getting
the production boost between 2x vs 4x. If I
knew this I could do the math and determine
which has a higher success ratio for getting
the boosted outcomes. If someone knows
the math behind this, we could find out what
truly offers the best odds: 2 chances vs 4
chances with the same win chance per attempt.

I did the math as you referred. We are interested only in the expected output after a certain time. It does not matter how many times we get 4x. Only the expected avarage output matters. And it's the same in both cases: 2x4hrs production vs. 1x8hrs production.

You assume that, you can get more chance to get 4x harvest if you do 4hrs prudoction. It's true. In avarege you will get 2x more times the 4x bonus, BUT you will get only half of the goods with each 4hrs production. Combining these two facts, you can get to the conclusion: it does not matter what production option you choose.

 

[Staffan Upsaliensis]

Actually the Aztecs are not that hard to finish on time for the gold reward. The first time I played it I thought "oh no" when I saw the amount of goods needed to complete the settlement. But after playing it I realised there was more than enough time, even though the mini game does not have a x4 chanse as the japanese merchant has. As I said before, the first day or two there is a shortage of cacao, but once you've got enough land to have enough statues you get more than enough and even can tear down and rebuild roads at will. The key is to have at least some luck with the mini game so you get goods to buy more real estate well before you have the factories to produce that goods.

 

[drakenridder]

Unfortunately I don't know the math behind
predicting the improved probability of getting
the production boost between 2x vs 4x. If I
knew this I could do the math and determine
which has a higher success ratio for getting
the boosted outcomes. If someone knows
the math behind this, we could find out what
truly offers the best odds: 2 chances vs 4
chances with the same win chance per attempt.

I've found a formula for probability that with multiple attempts the bonus occurs. This is

the source:

https://www.quora.com/How-would-one-calculate-the-probability-of-the-occurrence-of-an-event-over-multiple-attempts-1-chance-over-10-tries

The formula is;
100*(1-(1-p)^attempts)

p = chance for 4x boost
So, we can only influencing the number of attempts, I'll calculate the probability for 1
attempt for reference, 2 for the representation of 2x 8h and 4 attempts for 4x 4h
representation. This are the results with 20% chance of the 4x bonus:

1 attempt
20% = 100 * (1 - (1 - 20)^1)

2 attempts (2x 8h)
36% = 100 * (1 - (1 - 20)^2)

4 attempts (4x 4h)
59,04% = 100 * (1 - (1 - 20)^4)

So, according to the math it's more likely that you'll get the 4x bonus with 4x 4h. Now the
math for when you'll get a bonus with 4x 4h. Which is more likely to happening than with 2x
8h.

2 x 10 = 20
4 x 5 + ((5 * 4 bonus )-5 base prod) = 35

This scenario is most likely to happen most of the times. Which will deliver most likely in the
most cases 15 goods more.
Now let's assume your also lucky with the 2x 8h prod, than this is the production:

2x 10 + ((10 * 4 bonus)-10 base prod) = 50
4x 5 = 20

In this less likely event which according to the math will most likely be less often. The 2x 8h
prod wil be massively more productive.
In conclusion the 4x 4h option has the best odds. While the 2x 8h production can offer higher production when lucky.
So, it's rather risk management and up
to personal preference to gamble with either
better odds, or higher risk higher reward.

Taking chances into account for decision making brings two complex subjects:
chance calculation / estimations and risk management. Both are tricky and will lean
towards personal reference. What for some will be acceptable risk will be for the other
outrageously high. Math can in conclusion help making the decisions but ultimately it's up to
yourself.

@derdelyi beta yes but actually no, you did calculate under both favourable / equal
conditions and ignored chance calculations. Causing the math to confirm the known result
that both productions under the same conditions are the same. The discussion went
more to with which options you'll likely
get goods faster. Using the 4x bonus by
chance and which

-------


Regardless of the conclusions. I find it fascinating how deep and mathematically we
try to answer, explain and finding the best ways to achieving our goals in this game and trying
to convincing one another from our points of views.

 

[Darrth Eugene Vader3]

I thought the topic was "Mughal Empire", not how to do the Aztecs.

 

[Emberguard]

W

I thought the topic was "Mughal Empire", not how to do the Aztecs.

It was, then we got distracted

 

[derdelyi beta]

@derdelyi beta yes but actually no, you did calculate under both favourable / equal conditions and ignored chance calculations. Causing the math to confirm the known result that both productions under the same conditions are the same.

I did the proper calculation, I just simplified it for non-mathematicians.

You used the wrong formula. The 100*(1-(1-p)^attempts) formula gives you, what is the probability to get 4x harvest at least one time from N attempts. And of course more attemps increase the chance to get at least one 4x harvest.

But our original question is: Which method is better (more likely to success) to be able to unlock the minigame after 8 hours when you start a new Azteczs settlement? <-- It requires 15+30=45 goods.

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
Or you can use this calculator: https://www.wolframalpha.com/widgets/view.jsp?id=78baf4f3a070cc5b9b226664d2ce80ec

In case of 2x8hrs production you need to get 4x harvest 1 or 2 times to success in this task. --> 0 is considered as a failure (2*10=20 < 45).
In case of 4x4hrs production you need to get 4x harvest 2, 3 or 4 times to success in this task. --> 0 and 1 are considered as a failure (1*20+3*5=35 < 45).

The chance for getting 4x harvest 0 times from 2 attempts is: (1-p)^2 which is 64% if p=20%.
So the chance for success is its complement: 100-64% = 36%

The chance for getting 4x harvest 0 times from 4 attempts is: (1-p)^4 which is 40,96% if p=20%.
The chance for getting 4x harvest 1 times from 4 attempts is: 4 * p * (1-p)^3 which is 40,96% if p=20%
So the change for success is its complement: 100 - 40,96% - 40,96% = 18,08%

Based on this calculation the 2x8hrs production option is MUCH BETTER, than the 4x4hrs production option to successfully unlock the minigame after 8 hours (36% > 18,08%).

Anyway, if we are interested in another question: Which method (1x8hrs or 2x4hrs) procudes more goods IN AVARAGE after a certain period?
The answer is: The two methods have exactly the same expected avarage output. <-- As I stated in one of my prev posts. It could also be calculated using the above mentioned binomial distribution formula.

 

[Dessire]

SO wrong. Let me correct you. Either you are a visitor from a distant past, in which Guild Battlegrounds have not yet been implemented, or you're just a farmer, who don't play in GBG at all.
GBG FP income may be even more than twice as big as your fully developed city gives you.

I produce 1400 FPs per day in my city, excluding the fps that you receive from space carrier and himeji and excluding the ones I receive from GBG. in 11 days ( 11 days of GBG), that is 15400 forge points.

according to the wiki, doing only fights in diamond league, every 100 battles you should receive an average of 48 rewards. from those 48 rewards, you have a chance of 35.7% to get FPs. so from 100 battles you get 48 rewards and from those 48 rewards you get an average of 171 FPS. so, In order to earn those 15400 FP I produce every 11 days, I must do 9006 battles in 11 days and I know that you know that most of the players can't be a member of a powerful guild in diamond league to do in 11 days 9006 battles, but that is not all, I already can reach attrition 70 with 800% of attack so if you include those fights, the amount is more than 15400. ... AAHH!! and do not forget that when GBG ends, you must wait 3 days to do GBG again, during those 3 days I get another 4200 FPs! fps that a player who get most of his/her FPS from GBG can't get! . . oh and remember, I'm not counting the FPS from space carrier and himeji!

now tell me, how focus on attack is better than focus on producing FPs? XD also, remember that you do not need to have a lot of attack to fight a lot if you are in a powerfull guild that always put siege camps in GBG XD

people who say that attack is better than produce tons of fp in your city really do not know what they are saying. also, you should check reddit, there are some pro players who for years focused only on stack more attack and then they noticed that in order to increase your attrition limit by 2 to 4 numbers, you need to stack an extra of 200% attack, that is like 20 botanical rotunda in SAAB, that is 180 squares of space, only to do what...2 to 4 extra battles? . . .have more than 1000% of attack is just a waste of space for them now.

now, going back to the main topic, please FoE! make this new settlement easy! like egypt! that settlement was more relaxing than the other 3 :/

 

[drakenridder]

I did the proper calculation, I just simplified it for non-mathematicians.

You used the wrong formula. The 100*(1-(1-p)^attempts) formula gives you, what is the probability to get 4x harvest at least one time from N attempts. And of course more attemps increase the chance to get at least one 4x harvest.

But our original question is: Which method is better (more likely to success) to be able to unlock the minigame after 8 hours when you start a new Azteczs settlement? <-- It requires 15+30=45 goods.

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
Or you can use this calculator: https://www.wolframalpha.com/widgets/view.jsp?id=78baf4f3a070cc5b9b226664d2ce80ec

In case of 2x8hrs production you need to get 4x harvest 1 or 2 times to success in this task. --> 0 is considered as a failure (2*10=20 < 45).
In case of 4x4hrs production you need to get 4x harvest 2, 3 or 4 times to success in this task. --> 0 and 1 are considered as a failure (1*20+3*5=35 < 45).

The chance for getting 4x harvest 0 times from 2 attempts is: (1-p)^2 which is 64% if p=20%.
So the chance for success is its complement: 100-64% = 36%

The chance for getting 4x harvest 0 times from 4 attempts is: (1-p)^4 which is 40,96% if p=20%.
The chance for getting 4x harvest 1 times from 4 attempts is: 4 * p * (1-p)^3 which is 40,96% if p=20%
So the change for success is its complement: 100 - 40,96% - 40,96% = 18,08%

Based on this calculation the 2x8hrs production option is MUCH BETTER, than the 4x4hrs production option to successfully unlock the minigame after 8 hours (36% > 18,08%).

Anyway, if we are interested in another question: Which method (1x8hrs or 2x4hrs) procudes more goods IN AVARAGE after a certain period?
The answer is: The two methods have exactly the same expected avarage output. <-- As I stated in one of my prev posts. It could also be calculated using the above mentioned binomial distribution formula.

Now I understand. I didn't use the wrong formula perse. I thought Desire was aiming at the odds
you have for a 4x boost to occur in set number of attempts. Thus I thought it was about the chance
that a 4x boost would occur and indeed thanks to that I falsely assumed that with more frequent
4x boosts from 4h cyclus you could expect more goods to produce.
Later when rereading your
posts I realised it was about expected goods that you could produce, factoring in the odds for a 4x
boost. With that in mind I've ran other calculations and came to the same conclusion as you did,
that the actual output on average would be the same. Although with 4h cyclus more 4x boosts would
to be expected but as you pointed out, due to the lower base value it's evening out. Thanks for
clearing it up with the calculations. Learned something today.

This are my later calculations btw, thanks to them I discovered my error and that you where right:

Spoiler: Expectation calculations

Goods producing buildings: 3x
Time in days: 7 days
Production cyclus: daytime, 2x 8h / day and 4x 4h / day
Probability 4x boost: 20%

2x 8h cycle

Total attempts in 7 days: number of buildings * productions 1 building / day * total days
42 total attempts = 3 buildings * 2 productions/day * 7 total days

Expected total goods, no boost = attempts * base value
420 goods = 42 productions * 10 goods / production

Expected boost in 7 days:
8,4 4x boosts = 42 attempts * (2/10)

Expected additional goods from boost = number of boosts * base value * (multiplier boost - 1)
252 extra goods = 8,4 * 10 goods / prod * (4 - 1)

Total expected goods = Expected goods + Expected additional goods
672 goods = 420 goods + 252 goods

4x 4h cycle

Total attempts in 7 days: number of buildings * productions 1 building / day * total days
84 total attempts = 3 buildings * 4 productions/day * 7 total days

Expected total goods, no boost = attempts * base value
420 goods = 84 productions * 5 goods / production

Expected boost in 7 days:
16,8 4x boosts = 84 attempts * (2/10)

Expected additional goods from boost = number of boosts * base value * (multiplier boost - 1)
252 extra goods = 16,8 * 5 goods / prod * (4 - 1)

Total expected goods = Expected goods + Expected additional goods
672 goods = 420 goods + 252 goods

This calculations were pure averages and purely theoretical. In practice it might be wildly different
and expected averages which are not rounded values. If you would work with rounded values, the
4h production cyclus would've gained a slight advantage over the 8h production cyclus. This may
or may not in practice result in slightly higher output due to average better odds. Yet this heavily
relies on far more successful attempts than 8h cyclus. Giving bad luck this would likely undercut this
strategy.

In conclusion, yeah in theory and mathematical speaking, you'r right. The differences are non existence
up to slight. In practice better odds may lean in favour towards 4h cyclus but bad luck, as it's heavily
relying on luck, might undercut it. While 8h cycle strategy is less vulnerable for bad luck, since it depends
less on favourable odds.
Taking all that in. To me it rather occurs that mathematical it doesn't matter and practice is difficult
to predict. As it's still chances and gambling with odds. So, it's rather up to personal preference and
risk management which is better. Finally the problem with averages, often your either getting or
performing above or below average.

 

[UBERhelp1]

This might be off topic, but can this whole settlement chance talk be taken elsewhere? I keep seeing this thread with new replies and I think there's more news on the settlement...