CrashBoom
Legend
the daily changelog says it was changed yesterdayNo, it's not fixed yet Just changed the daily, got winner plaza level 2 and won 2.
the daily changelog says it was changed yesterdayNo, it's not fixed yet Just changed the daily, got winner plaza level 2 and won 2.
Jupp it is the 2nd one, just have to decide if it is worth spending that much for these 2 items, that will cost more if offered as sale items. Plus you will get a Winners Plaza at Level 2 in this Event. And it is possible to get to 7 cities for most players.Is it just me or does anyone else find it strange, that this is now the second or third event in a row where you can get wishing wells and shrink kits only for paying diamonds and only fragments without?
Well, it is possible there is a bug, but unlikely it is an obvious one - otherwise there would be way more complaints...Am I supposed to believe that I am so (un)lucky that I hit a series with a probability of 0.03%?
(1-0,15)^50 = 0,000295765 = 0,0295765%So yeah, you likely were unlucky - also you showed bad practice in statistics evaluation - because you cherry picked... You had 1 grand prize in 50 that has a chance of 0.25% - so the stats were about 10 times better than you pointed out
Still you forgot to include the one prize you got in your statistics - that is cherry picking...(1-0,15)^50 = 0,000295765 = 0,0295765%
0,15 - probability of winning the main prize
50 - number of draws
^^^ basics of probability analysis
But you did get one reward, so using the Binomial distribution formula, there is a ~0,26% of this happening(1-0,15)^50 = 0,000295765 = 0,0295765%
0,15 - probability of winning the main prize
50 - number of draws
^^^ basics of probability analysis
n = 50
k = 1
p = 0,15
50 * 0,15 * 0,000347958 * 100 = 0,26%
if that happens to nobody then it would be a bugor is there an "RNG bug"?...
Yes, but it was the first draw. Then was c.a. 50 draws without prize and I calculated probability for such series.But you did get one reward, so using the Binomial distribution formula, there is a ~0,26% of this happening
I think that bug may be with this "+5% chance" from Ultimate Hero.Are you unlucky, or is there an "RNG bug"?...As @beelzebob666 said, if it was bugged that badly, likely there would be much more complains not getting enough DS. Likely.
Yes, but that is the same as complaining about 50 dutts after winning 100 in a row...Yes, but it was the first draw. Then was c.a. 50 draws without prize and I calculated probability for such series.
Ops. 1 in a row and 100 in a row are the same for you? Congrats.Yes, but that is the same as complaining about 50 dutts after winning 100 in a row...
Bad evaluation!
Yes, but it was the first draw. Then was c.a. 50 draws without prize and I calculated probability for such series.
Never said that...Ops. 1 in a row and 100 in a row are the same for you? Congrats.
yeah, that is a misconception... they never did afaik... also in recent events most dailies only pop up once, so there barely are any repeats.I thought the DP rotation repeats