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Alcatraz

DeletedUser7905

Guest
Hello,

We will say that my Alcatraz gives me 10 units per day and that I have two barracks, logically I should receive 5 units of each (via probability) but a friend told me that Alcatraz gave 60/40 or 6/4 units this That I doubt very much that it is probabilities and therefore we can very well receive 9/1 or 7/1 but good I ask ...
 
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DeletedUser

Guest
it is pure luck

you can get 6/4 or 4/6 or even 0/10
on the medium run 60/40 units is normal because of the variance

even on very long runs it can be a big difference

poker player knows best how cruel variance can be


Poker-Variance-Calculator-with-best-and-worst-runs.png



logically I should receive 5 units of each
the expected value is 5

but reality doesn't give you the expected value

the expected value of throwing a dice is 3,5
have you ever thrown a 3,5 ;)
 

RedRed

Viceroy
my guess is that with 2 barracks you have 50% probability of spawn for each single unit generated, just like in other parts of the game. This means that in a single daily production you might experience 5+5 as well as 0+10, but in the long run the average will be close to 5+5
 

DeletedUser7905

Guest
Sorry but see that I do not speak English well, I do not understand everything.
So if I understand Betatest01, what does my friend say is false all as I thought? According to the crops one can very well have a day of 50/50 and another of 60/50 etc. etc ... but as said redred, by force the value this approximates 50/50
 

NormaJeane

Viceroy
The units you get from Alcatraz can be compared to a gambling game:
Alca will give units from the barracks you have, but there is no telling how many units you will get from which barracks.
 

DeletedUser7942

Guest
Had this discussion over on live and as far as I'm aware Inno has never said specifically how Traz works aside from "...randomly chosen...". Many players say the more of any given barracks type you have Traz will produce more of that unit type, so if you have 10 Rogue Hideouts and 1 Manta Bay Traz will produce more Rogues than Manta's, I'm inclined to agree with this now.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
as far as I'm aware Inno has never said specifically how Traz works
actually the german CM did

the number of barracks really counts
9 rogue hideouts. 1 other barrack

so every unit has a 90% chance to be a rogue
(but still variance applies and real numbers can be different)

also it doesn't matter if a building has a road connection or not
and the construction of a buildings must not be finished and it still counts
 

DeletedUser7942

Guest
actually the german CM did

the number of barracks really counts
9 rogue hideouts. 1 other barrack

so every unit has a 90% chance to be a rogue
(but still variance applies and real numbers can be different)

also it doesn't matter if a building has a road connection or not
and the construction of a buildings must not be finished and it still counts
Like said in German or a German said cuz you know people are gonna want a link to that but I don't speak German. Oh and was he sure Inno has it set that way?
 
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