Alright here goes... So the chest analysis from wiki was actually rather straightforward - essentially it comes out that if you want kits, the 20 blossom gold chest is almost always the right pick. and usually it's a 20% chance for 65 lanterns. The Hanami silver chest is better than any of the golds for relative special chance apparently - but is only one of the 4 silvers, the rest are worse - so i ignored it existed for the following percentages but you'd be wise to pick it to make a slight improvement when it's available. The other silvers aren't terribly worse though so if you like their contents, you can try for them if you want without changing your kit results much. Victor's Fame (bronze) is also reasonably acceptable daily-wise but its contents have nothing nice so i see no reason to take the hit unless it's coming down to your last blossoms and is likely to be a bonus selection. The Going Rogue chest that some people might otherwise want is pretty bad for kits.
At around 1200-1300 lanterns which is my rough guess at how many you get for free (600 main questline + 200 bonus questline + 200 daily login + various tree collections/starting lanterns - i'm not sure what all spawns them this year as i haven't tested it much on beta) you see less than a 10% chance to be the lucky person who pulled 7 or more kits and called it a wonderful event earlier in the thread. and about a 1.5% chance to be the unluckiest man in the world who hasn't even managed a single kit yet (which is to say, it's going to happen to a number of people in a game with thousands of players). The 3 kit minimum to combine with the 2 quest rewards would be a success for about 70-80% of people.
Spending 2000 diamonds for 480 blossoms for more chests will on average get you 1.5 more kits but variance is a you know what.
At around 1200-1300 lanterns which is my rough guess at how many you get for free (600 main questline + 200 bonus questline + 200 daily login + various tree collections/starting lanterns - i'm not sure what all spawns them this year as i haven't tested it much on beta) you see less than a 10% chance to be the lucky person who pulled 7 or more kits and called it a wonderful event earlier in the thread. and about a 1.5% chance to be the unluckiest man in the world who hasn't even managed a single kit yet (which is to say, it's going to happen to a number of people in a game with thousands of players). The 3 kit minimum to combine with the 2 quest rewards would be a success for about 70-80% of people.
Spending 2000 diamonds for 480 blossoms for more chests will on average get you 1.5 more kits but variance is a you know what.
EDIT: NormaJeane - 2018-03-23 - Too large image(s), spoiler tags were added. Max size allowed is: 600x480 pixels.
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