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Feedback Fellowship Event 2022

Amdira

Baronet
Is it just me or does anyone else find it strange, that this is now the second or third event in a row where you can get wishing wells and shrink kits only for paying diamonds and only fragments without?
 

6zeva9

Baronet
Is it just me or does anyone else find it strange, that this is now the second or third event in a row where you can get wishing wells and shrink kits only for paying diamonds and only fragments without?
Jupp it is the 2nd one, just have to decide if it is worth spending that much for these 2 items, that will cost more if offered as sale items. Plus you will get a Winners Plaza at Level 2 in this Event. And it is possible to get to 7 cities for most players.
Last time you could only get them if you where able to get 280 paws (for both) from the mini-game, most normal players will only get half that amount. And you needed 200 paws for just the Wishing Well.
 

swistakzwg

Farmer
The percentages given for the chances of the top prize are lie.
I spent 3600 rations with Ultimate Hero enabled.
Almost 50 jumps in total, each of which was supposed to have a 12-19% (with Ultimate Hero bonus) chance of the main prize.
1 grand prize (in the first jump) came in.
That's one big cheat, because it's definitely not a statistic.
The probability of not drawing the main prize in 50 consecutive attempts (with an average probability of drawing the prize of 15%) is 0.03%.
Am I supposed to believe that I am so (un)lucky that I hit a series with a probability of 0.03%?
 

beelzebob666

Overlord
Pathfinder
Spoiler Poster
Am I supposed to believe that I am so (un)lucky that I hit a series with a probability of 0.03%?
Well, it is possible there is a bug, but unlikely it is an obvious one - otherwise there would be way more complaints...

So yeah, you likely were unlucky - also you showed bad practice in statistics evaluation - because you cherry picked... You had 1 grand prize in 50 that has a chance of 0.25% - so the stats were about 10 times better than you pointed out
 
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swistakzwg

Farmer
So yeah, you likely were unlucky - also you showed bad practice in statistics evaluation - because you cherry picked... You had 1 grand prize in 50 that has a chance of 0.25% - so the stats were about 10 times better than you pointed out
(1-0,15)^50 = 0,000295765 = 0,0295765%

0,15 - probability of winning the main prize
50 - number of draws

^^^ basics of probability analysis
 

beelzebob666

Overlord
Pathfinder
Spoiler Poster
(1-0,15)^50 = 0,000295765 = 0,0295765%

0,15 - probability of winning the main prize
50 - number of draws

^^^ basics of probability analysis
Still you forgot to include the one prize you got in your statistics - that is cherry picking... o_O :rolleyes:

Do not trust any statistic you did not forge/falsify yourself...
 

ArklurBeta

Baronet
(1-0,15)^50 = 0,000295765 = 0,0295765%

0,15 - probability of winning the main prize
50 - number of draws

^^^ basics of probability analysis
But you did get one reward, so using the Binomial distribution formula, there is a ~0,26% of this happening
Code:
n = 50
k = 1
p = 0,15

50 * 0,15 * 0,000347958 * 100 = 0,26%

Which means, if I'm not mistaken, that there will be 1 player out of ~385 who will only get 1 DS, not the "expected" ~7,5.

Are you unlucky, or is there an "RNG bug"?...As @beelzebob666 said, if it was bugged that badly, likely there would be much more complains not getting enough DS. Likely.
 

Owl II

Emperor
I tried to spend rations and was horrified. Please remove these jerks of the figures when moving across the field. Let them move smoothly. Make it possible to cancel this unbearable animation. It's impossible to play. It's impossible to look at it. You said that the copy-paste of the ages is unimportant. Events are important. So I'll tell you that your event copy-paste has surpassed the epochs a thousand times. You managed to collect all the most disgusting things and make it worse.
 

swistakzwg

Farmer
But you did get one reward, so using the Binomial distribution formula, there is a ~0,26% of this happening
Yes, but it was the first draw. Then was c.a. 50 draws without prize and I calculated probability for such series.

Are you unlucky, or is there an "RNG bug"?...As @beelzebob666 said, if it was bugged that badly, likely there would be much more complains not getting enough DS. Likely.
I think that bug may be with this "+5% chance" from Ultimate Hero.
Description suggest that +5% is added to the standard chance (e.g. 7% + 5% = 12% for the for the smallest movement) but in fact it's 5% of the standard chance (e.g. 7% *1,05 = 7,35%).
 
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beelzebob666

Overlord
Pathfinder
Spoiler Poster
Yes, but it was the first draw. Then was c.a. 50 draws without prize and I calculated probability for such series.
Yes, but that is the same as complaining about 50 dutts after winning 100 in a row...

Bad evaluation!

1 in a 50 still is no satisfactory result - I understand that... But that is no reason to falsify statistics

Btw... 25 dutts, a prize and 25 dutts has the same chance as a prize and then 50 dutts
 

ArklurBeta

Baronet
Yes, but it was the first draw. Then was c.a. 50 draws without prize and I calculated probability for such series.


Here you can see my luck with the 2020 (?) Halloween event. As you can see, I was extremely lucky in the beginning, then, well...*not that lucky* at the end (sidenote: overall, I was rather lucky, above average result). From this I could select both a very lucky and very unlucky range, but that's not how you work with probabilities. I totally understand how unfair does it feel to be this unlucky, but you can't know what would have happened if you do another 10...maybe you would've got +3 DS. RNG can be a b**ch at times :) .

In GBG it's really not that rare I get attrition with 3SC in a row, numerous times, 3-4, or even more. 3 is like ~2%, 4 is ~0.6%. But overall, end of a sector being flipped, it seems te balance itself out.

To be honest, the RNG system of the game does feel off to me too, often it's a mix of being very lucky then very unlucky, "instead of" being "average", so to speak.
 

beelzebob666

Overlord
Pathfinder
Spoiler Poster
Ops. 1 in a row and 100 in a row are the same for you? Congrats.
Never said that...

So you see the difference between 1 and 100? But why do you not see the difference when excluding the one win?

You continue to fail to get the point...
 

Thunderdome

Emperor
Inno,

I felt we were being lied to in this event. You have stated that we're going to see the Stages of Ages as part of the daily special. To this date, we got the following:

• Day 01 Knight Pavilion (tempted to get but resisting the urge)
• Day 02 Winner's Plaza Lvl 2 (supposedly a mistake but should be fixed)
• Day 03 Hall of Fame Selection Kit (my SoH's are doing fine for Guild Power)
• Day 04 Rogue Hideout (don't need any more than the 1 I am using for 'traz)
• Day 05 6h Supply Rush (I plan my supply runs without a need for these)
• Day 06 Hanami Bridge Selection Kit (I got one at full upgrade; don't want another)
• Day 07 Tactician's Tower Lvl 1 (worthless to me)

And now, we're back to this one:

• Day 08 Knight Pavilion (I swear. I am still trying to resist the urge)

The switch to replace such didn't do me any justice, either. I am sitting on nearly 8k rations and haven't gotten off first gear yet with the journey just because I was waiting for something that probably won't come. While I am tempted to blow all 8k on the Knight Pavilion, I am resisting the urge because I have little faith remaining in hoping that the elusive Stages of Ages will come as a daily special so I can spend all my rations on it.

Could it be because it's a building that not only features FP and attack power but previous (when motivated) goods as well?

Now, quit troll facing me and bring forth this special prize being sought out by many! We got 14 days left!

Regards,
The Players Who Want This to Happen
 

nice2haveu

Baronet
Just testing the use of diamonds in the event to know what will be the out come. Just 150 diamonds to include all horse heroes, used 4k rations on the knight pavilion. It seems okay, less worry and little happy.
IMG_20220622_063901.jpg
 

beelzebob666

Overlord
Pathfinder
Spoiler Poster
@Thunderdome - stop bitching
what is your Problem? as you said yourself - there still are 14 days left
who cares how often other prizes come - as long as the promised prizes come at least once, there are no lies or "trolling" - the only one trolling you (and us) is you
also: the later the sought after prize comes, the better for you, because you will have more event currency to spend on it. Also you need to buy the ultimate hero less often...
 

Thunderdome

Emperor
@beelzebob666 heh heh heh

It's nearly the middle of the week and this chap is in need of a drink. Anyways, just didn't want to have wasted currency just because something didn't come that I will have to either choose on the DP for the last day (after waiting so long) or its replacement (if I didn't get lucky) to spend it all on.

And... I thought the DP rotation repeats AFTER the last daily prize programmed was offered, hence why the panic there.

But, you're right. I will be in a better position for when that day comes (or happens).
 

beelzebob666

Overlord
Pathfinder
Spoiler Poster
I thought the DP rotation repeats
yeah, that is a misconception... they never did afaik... also in recent events most dailies only pop up once, so there barely are any repeats.

But I think the prize switching introduced last year was a very good decision on Innos part.
 
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